Top 50 Keepers (NBA edition)

By: Andrew Katz

Before we dive into this list there are a few rules to keep in mind when considering how this list was put together:
· The players are ranked by how it is felt they will perform over the next three years, hence the reason why Tyson Chandler would be ranked ahead of Marcus Camby
· These rankings are based upon projections for a standard Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball league, meaning that if you are an elite scorer putting up 25 ppg (Carmelo Anthony?) that doesn’t necessarily mean you will be ranked at an elite level here
· Just because a player is having an all-around great fantasy year (Mike Dunleavy) does not mean that I anticipate him being able to do this for the next 2 or 3 years, or even the rest of this year. Essentially, staying power is an issue that has to be factored into these rankings as well
On the cusp…
Emeka Okafor: Hasn’t shown much improvement over his first three years, and appears satisfied being a 13/10 kind of guy

Ronnie Brewer: Very young so you know he’s got a shot to maintain his top 50 Y! ranking, but has been slumping of late and hasn’t really shown anything that stands out and screams “ I am here to stay!”

They certainly won’t hurt you ….

50. Lou Williams: Thank me when Andre Miller gets traded and he’s dropping ten dimes a game

49. Tim Duncan: The general rule of thumb is that centers start to burn out (quickly) around the age of 33 or 34. Timmy’s 31, so he’s probably still worth the gamble, even if you only two more legitimate Tim Duncan years

48. Al Horford: Already averaging just about a double-double as a rook. Don’t expect him to contract Emeka Syndrome either, this kid’s got the drive that it takes

47. Tony Parker: So what if he has some turnover issues, he’s 25 (wow), is averaging a career high in assists, points, and is the point guard on the best team, tough to go wrong here

46. Richard Jefferson: The guy could easily be a top 20 fantasy caliber player, it’s all up to him, as evidenced by this past month where he was ranked 82nd over that period

45. Hedo Turkoglu: The guy simply dropped into the perfect situation – point guard who can dish, dominant post player, and the Hedo upgrade, Rashard Lewis, he’s putting up career highs across the board, and it’s tough to find a reason why he shouldn’t be able to keep his stats where they are for the next few seasons

44. Jason Kidd: He’s still got it. Here’s the kicker, one of two things has to happen for him to be the Jason Kidd fantasy performer of old:
1) His teammates, outside of Sean Williams, have to start caring again.
2) He has to be traded (a trade to the Lakers or Dallas would immediately vault him into the top 20 range)

43. Tyson Chandler: Another guy in a great situation, on a young team with loads of potential and just starting to realize his own. Expect as high as 15/15 this year and only increases from here on forward

42. Devin Harris: Loads of talent; will become a bigger part of offense as year goes on, expect him to be a top 7 PG by the end of the year

41. Allen Iverson: Never doubt The Answer, even if his body takes more of a beating than the average Guido’s wife. But seriously, with Carmelo improving every year, AI will be able to relieve a little of the pressure from his shoulders, allowing him to maintain a top 50 Y! ranking for the next few years

Count on them to appear on the Championship team…

40. Chauncey Billups: It seems like he’s gotten better every year since he was 21. Even if he will be 34 three years from now, the chemistry the Pistons have will allow him to continue to put up legitimate fantasy numbers over the next few seasons. Keep in mind that he’s the number 14 player in the Y! game this year, playing less than three quarters per game

39. Andris Biedrins: He’s 21, the Warriors seem to be protecting him, he’s averaging a double-double in not even 30 MPG, he’s going to be great

38. Rashard Lewis: With Dwight dominating the inside and Jameer doing his thing, Rashard can be Rashard and not even worry about carrying the team

37. Joe Johnson: As the Hawks improve, so will Joe. He’s got a world of talent and we’ll see him shine in more ways than just scoring once this team matures a little. Watch out: top 20 Y! potential

36. Manu Ginobili: Averaging career highs across the board, and showing no signs of letting up

35. Leandro Barbosa: FINALLY starting, even if numbers are slightly down in some categories, two 3’s and a 1.5 steals/game are very nice

34. Michael Redd: A younger, just as lethal Paul Pierce, who is finally starting to get some help from teammates

33. David West: It’s almost not fair having him and Chandler on the block. Expect 20/10 and close to 2 blocks a game very soon

32. Gilbert Arenas: Fantasy owners can only hope that he realizes that just because he’s so talented, that he doesn’t have to do everything himself (and that he signs with a contender in the offseason)

Look out, here come the young guns….

31. LaMarcus Aldridge: Don’t be fooled by the Y! ranking, 19/8 and a block are more than we could ever have expected from this second year stud

30. Danny Granger: Thrived in Jermaine O’Neal’s absence, once he’s dealt the sky is the limit

29. Jose Calderon: If he hadn’t received limited playing time throughout portions of the year, would be number 2 in assists, we’re looking at Steve Nash minus the scoring (and you have to love only 38 TO’s!)

28. Andrei Kirilenko: His reputation tells us that if he stays away from the injury bug he’s good to keep up those all around solid fantasy numbers

27. Kevin Durant: He’s got the talent, it’s all about whether he will become a TMac or a Kobe, fantasywise

26. Kevin Martin: Hurt right now, but when he comes back expect his usual all-around solid fantasy game who, with the acquisition of a quality running mate could vault into the top ten

25. Rudy Gay: Worth Shane Battier? For damn sure. Basically being Kevin Martin averaging 21/7/2/1/1 with solid turnover and 3PTM /game over the last month, he’s living up to the immense hype that surrounded him on draft day and then some

24. Brandon Roy: Proving himself to be as much the leader he was in college, simply taking over during the Blazers’ ten game win streak

Do what it takes to get ‘em….

23. Dirk Nowitzki: There’s no reason to believe that he won’t continue to be a top 25 Y! player for the next few years, even if his points have declined slightly this year, every other category is up to par or better

22. Carmelo Anthony: I refuse to believe that he will not mature over the next few years and cut down on his TO’s while upping his assists. He simply has too much of a will to win not to have this happen. And people, try to remember, he’s only 23

21. Baron Davis: The formula for him his simple: avoid injuries, put up top 10 kind of stats. Of course, it’s almost a sure thing for him to find the injury bug at least once a year. It seems weird that he’s only 28 and even if he only plays 65 games a year he’s still well worth a second round pick at least

20. Andre Iguodala: The cornerstone on a 76ers team that’s playing better than people think. His 18/5/5 line is great, but it’s the 2.4 steals/game that really blows you away (nearly limitless potential when coupled with Lou)

19. Dwyane Wade: His Y! ranking is deceiving not only because he was hurt for much of the season, but also because that 4.5 TO/game stat is due much in part to the fact that he basically has to create everything himself. If Randy Pfund wakes up and realizes that not even The Flash can do everything on his own, then immediately put DWade back in your top 15.

18. Caron Butler: Putting up absurd numbers right now but a couple of factors must be considered when assessing his potential
1) When Gilbert returns, points and assists likely immediately drop
2) Numbers have tended to drop off as the season goes on, and this was while he wasn’t even the go to guy on the team
Clearly he could very well stay a top 10 fantasy player, but it is too soon to much that much confidence in him

The Elite

17. Steve Nash: OK, he’s 33, but has he showed ANY signs of slowing down? He’s surrounded by the likes of Barbosa, Marion, Hill, and Stoudemire so basically even I could play the point here and have some success. Expect at least another two years of typical Steve Nash production

16. Chris Bosh: Will be a consistent 20/10 player for years to come, also brings a nice 80% FT to the dish, something most eligible centers lack. The combination of a steal and block per game with less two TO’s/game as well show that he is progressing very quickly through the maturation process of becoming one of the game’s few premier big men

15. Deron Williams: Already so fundamentally sound at the age of 23, Williams to Boozer brings back memories of another Jazz guard/forward duo. It’s tough to find any areas in his game in which he can really improve upon, so for now he’s a safe bet to fluctuate between ranks 10 and 30 in Y! but not much higher or lower, basically he’s a rock

14. Josh Howard: Hitting his prime just as he’s being asked to do more for this team. Josh has been very efficient putting up 21/7 a game while turning the ball over only a little more than once a contest. As Nowitzki ages, don’t be surprised if Howard’s numbers jump into the 25/9 range

13. Al Jefferson: Averaging 20/12 in just his second year starting on a very raw, albeit talented team. His FT% and assist totals have improved every year, so expect more of the same there. BY ’08 expect consistent 25/14 with a steal and couple blocks to boot. His low TO numbers are also encouraging. Top 10 is a possibility for next season

12. Amare Stoudemire: So what if he’s “soft,” all we fantasy guys care about are the stats and there’s no doubt he’s in the right place for plenty of those. His injury tendencies (knee specifically) coupled with the always swirling trade possibilities are all that are stopping him from being ranked much higher on this list

Mortgage the farm for ‘em…

11. Andrew Bynum: Now we know why the Lakers were so reluctant to trade him in the offseason. The guy is averaging a double-double and averages almost twice as many as blocks as he does turnovers per contest. He’s twenty years old and hasn’t even begun to feed off the asset that it is to have Kobe demanding such interest from defenders. 18/15 is a realistic possibility next year with potentially even more blocks as his minutes increase

10. Kevin Garnett: The good news - he’s finally on a winning team that can take some of the strain off of him, his minutes are down slightly, and he’s still producing at a very high level. The bad news – This Is his 13th season and you know he’s going to be counted to play more down the stretch if the Celtics need are in a fight for playoff positioning. His numbers may drop as the season goes on, but expect numbers no worse than 30th in the Y! game over the next few years, of course depending on how much he has left he’s always got the potential to be a top 3 caliber player

9. Yao: This was supposed to be his NBA season but so far signs point otherwise. Sure, he’ll post his 20-25 ppg and 10-12 boards, but he appears to lack the drive to make jump into legendary status (fantasy wise anyway.) Expect him to be a top 20 fantasy contributor for years to come (and he may even crack the top 10 at some points) but at the pick where you would take him, you can definitely get better value, even if it may be at a slightly higher level of risk

8. Shawn Marion: The Matrix simply gets the job done, both on the court and in the stat department. His steals and blocks are right where they’ve always been and even as his points have decreased slightly, he’s made up for it by limiting his TOs and contributing over 10 boards a game. Quite simply, the guy was built for fantasy basketball; however one has to wonder how much more his body can take considering the kind of game he plays over such an extensive amount of minutes

7. Chris Kaman: Already dropping 19/14 along with 3 blocks a game at the age of 25 on a truly dismal team that lacks another decent scoring threat. Once the Clips get one of those, expect decreased TOs and potential for 23/15. In a league filled with great young true centers, consider him no worse than third best of the bunch

6. Josh Smith: The next Shawn Marion, possibly even better (scary.) No one else is currently putting up anything like the otherworldly 17/9/4/2/3 (pts, rbs, asts, stls, blcks) stat line that Smith had over the last month. Once Atlanta settles on a true point guard, expect the Johnson-Smith duo to become one of the most electric the NBA has seen in some time

If you don’t have them, you’re not getting them…

5. Kobe Bryant: Well, even though he’s in his twelfth NBA season, he’s still Kobe. Bynum’s emergence should take some of the weight off of his back, but as we’ve seen from the past, Kobe will be called on in the season’s final couple of months to play an absurd amount of minutes. I say he’s got more Dominant year in him before we his numbers recede to a more human level, although most likely he will still be flirting with a rank inside the top 20

4. Carlos Boozer: Talk about someone who made the jump, Boozer has improved substantially in every category across the board from 2005 until now, while managing to maintain a superb shooting % and shoot well from the charity stripe. There is no reason to believe that Boozer will not continue to dominate as long as Deron Williams calls Utah home. The guy wants to win and is willing to lay it all out on the floor as evidenced by his averages of 4 assists and 2 steals over the last month that certainly have fantasy owners drooling

3. Dwight Howard: Here’s the potential line for him in the not so distant future (averages): 30/20/1/4 (pts, rbs, stls, blks) to go along with 65% from the field. Whereas these numbers are basically unprecedented, they are not impossible for Dwight. Just look at the leap he made from last year to this one – increasing points, rebounds, and blocks by 6, 3, and .7, respectively. Fortunately, he is also on a team that has the pieces to help with his development and launch him towards uncharted territory

In a fantasy league where there was no money on the line, you still couldn’t acquire these guys through bribery…

2. LeBron James: He’s the king, how much more can be said? His stat lines are a cross between Kobe’s and Kidd’s, unfortunately his teammates are holding him back big time. Until Danny Ferry wakes up and realizes that he needs to find a Scottie (no Danny, for the 20th time Larry Hughes will not suffice) for his MJ, LeBron appears to actually have a ceiling, considering the constant double-teams and hacking he will be facing. We may not see the impact that it has on him immediately in fantasy land, but the body can only take so much punishment before it starts to say stuff along the lines of “hey LeBron, don’t go for that tough layup with three men in your way, pass it off to Eric Snow, he’s open!!”

1. Chris Paul: A shocker!! (at first anyway.) However, there are logical reasons why I currently have Paul ahead of Bron Bron:
1) First and foremost being that Paul’s supporting cast is way better than LeBron’s. David West and Tyson Chandler offer two low post options for Paul to dish to, Peja provides a great kick out option, and the Hornets even have a couple of extremely talented, granted raw, prospects that should only help Paul even more in the years to come.
2) He averages 20/10, and not the common 20/12 either (points and boards.) The last person to average 20 points and 10 assists a game throughout the duration of a season? Magic Johnson.
3) Paul is averaging as many steals as he is TOs (both a shade under 3/game,) very efficient for a guy who handles the ball as often as he does. I assume that if LeBron’s supporting cast was better we would also see his TOs plummet.
4) Paul is currently ranked number 2 in the Y! game, and he still has so much potential he has yet to unlock. Fortunately for him, he is playing on a team that will be growing right alongside with him, seeing as the core made up of players no older than 27.
A lot of people would argue with me here, shouting that they would take LeBron over Paul, however you’ve got to keep in mind that in order to dominate in the world of fantasy a player has to be able to be both efficient and statistically exceptional across the board, and in order for that to happen he has to be able to rely on his teammates as well (TOs, assists.) Right now I simply feel that everything is falling into place for Chris Paul to be the dominant fantasy basketball player for years to come. LeBron may have the fire to get his team single-handedly to an NBA championship, but Paul has the repertoire and the teammates to guide my fantasy team to the crown.