25 December 2007

Top 50 Keepers (MLB edition)

By: Anthony D’Amato

Katz tackled basketball, so I decided to take baseball. Similar guidelines apply, with the next 3 seasons maintaining the heaviest weight. I believe putting up consistent stats in baseball is harder than in any other sport, due to the length of the season, injury contingency, and simply because hitting a mid-to-upper-90’s pitch is the hardest thing to do, especially with movement on the ball. So although Carlos Pena finished 2nd in the AL with 46 HRs, he’s only eclipsed 20 dingers and 80 ribbies one other time, and he’s never hit over .250 in a season in which he plays 100 or more games.


On The Bubble

Eric Byrnes: I need to see another few months of recent production. Changing teams in twice in 2005 clearly delayed his development

Chipper Jones: Injuries have always been a concern, and he isn’t getting any younger, but when he mashes when he’s in the lineup

Miguel Tejada: I don’t know how the whole steroids issue will play out, although the short porch in left field in Houston and the switch to the NL should help boost his power numbers

Brian Roberts: (see above)

Ian Kinsler: 20/20 at second base warrants a pick in the top 10 rounds

Torii Hunter: Now that he’s paid, will he put up the numbers to earn the paycheck?

Chris Young (SD): On the brink of greatness, and home field is a pitcher’s haven

Nick Markakis: Consistently produces day-to-day despite weak Orioles lineup


Not Yet Polished, but Definitely Solid

50. Chris B. Young (ARI): CB Young is the next Mike Cameron, but with more upside. The development of fellow youngsters Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew, and Justin Upton will only elevate his ceiling

49. Garrett Atkins: Might stumble a bit out of the gate, but picks it up as the season progresses. I held on to him last year in one of my leagues, and he rewarded me by picking up AVG in 2nd half

48. Derrek Lee: No longer an SB threat, but don’t forget he’s a former MVP. If he, Soriano, Ramirez can stay healthy and Fukudome delivers as advertised, 120 RBIs isn’t out of reach

47. Hunter Pence: He’ll produce across the board if he can avoid a sophomore slump

46. Chone Figgins: Plays 3 positions, provides 3 categories

45. Justin Verlander: Won 18 pitching in front of fearsome Tigers lineup… that now features Cabrera. Just pray he doesn’t blow his arm out

44. John Lackey: Fierce competitor is reminiscent of vintage Mussina – the kind of pitcher that wants the ball in big games/wants to close out close games

43. Cole Hamels: Mr. Effectively Wild cut his BBs, ERA, + WHIP while bumping up Ks last year

42. Carsten Charles Sabathia: AL Cy Young winner enters contract season, expect similar numbers in ‘08

41. Gary Sheffield: Health issues (shoulder), but slotted in the middle of power-packed lineup, and should be 100% by Opening Day

40. Aramis Ramirez: .300-30-100-80, if healthy all season long


What You See is What You Get, which is a Good Thing with this Group

39. Josh Beckett: He’s reached 200 IPs both years with Boston – no longer Blister Beckett

38. Manny Ramirez: First time in 9 seasons that he failed to reach 30 HR, 100 RBI

37. Carlos Lee: .290-30-100-90-10, take it to the bank

36. Victor Martinez: Elite catcher which is incredibly weak. 1st in HR, 1st in RBI, 2nd in AVG at that position

35. Adam Dunn: Slugger entering his prime, even added 9 SBs last year

34. Derek Jeter: As long as he’s batting in front of A-Rod, he’ll keep scoring a ton of runs

33. Russell Martin: 20/20 at C, and will only improve over next handful of seasons

32. Alex Rios: Power surge last year (+17 XBH between ’06-’07), and more coming. Vernon Wells once said he sees more power in Rios than Carlos Delgado had

31. Robinson Cano: He’s increased RBI + XBH totals each season


Yesterday Meets Tomorrow

30. Troy Tulowitzki: If not for Ryan Braun, he probably would’ve won NL ROY. A real gamer, he reminds me a bit of a young Jeter, with less speed and more power

29. Erik Bedard: Should land on a contender by midseason, which will net +5 W’s

28. Lance Berkman: Strong 2nd half indicates a rebound from an otherwise forgettable ‘07

27. Magglio Ordonez: Talk about earning your paycheck! But can he repeat?

26. Brandon Phillips: Former top-prospect removed mega-bust label with 30/30 season

25. Justin Morneau: He’s only one year removed from an MVP season. Depending on what spoils a Johan trade brings, he can return to form this season

24. Carlos Beltran: Injuries, slumps, and streaks balance out to solid (if inconsistent) numbers

23. Mark Teixeira: Smooth transition to NL despite moving away from Smallpark at Arlington

22. Ichiro: 7 straight seasons of 200+ Hs, 100+ Rs, 30 SBs (career .333 AVG)

21. Grady Sizemore: Expect 30/30, with 125 runs to boot. He’s got 5-tool written all over him and sits atop a formidable Indians lineup

20. Vladimir Guerrero: Age, back are issues but boy can he MASH


On The Brink of Superstardom

19. Curtis Granderson: Jimmy Rollins-lite

18. BJ Upton: Breakout ’07 should help this former 2nd overall pick realize his potential

17. Jake Peavy: The NL version of Johan

16. Ryan Braun: Always beware of sophomore slumps (same goes for Tulowitzki), but these are keeper rankings, and he will be the cutoff mark for elite 3Bs

15. Johan Santana: Went 1-8 vs CLE + DET last season, so a trade should bring back Cy-worthy line. I’d draft him in the top 2 rounds just for his 2nd half dominance alone (primetime performer during championship runs in head-to-head format)

14. David Ortiz: If his knees hold up, he could reach 150 RBIs with Ellsbury + Pedroia atop lineup

13. Carl Crawford: 100 Rs + 50 SBs guaranteed, with a realistic chance at .300 AVG + 15-20 HRs as a nice bonus


­­­­­­­­The Elite

12. Alfonso Soriano: Should return to 30/30 threat, so long as he stays healthy. If he could ever keep himself from flailing at terrible pitches, he’d easily maintain a .300 AVG and add 100 Rs

11. Prince Fielder: I stole him last year in the 9th round of our keeper draft (it was our first year), but he exceeded my expectations by 15 HRs. With Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, + Braun in front, and Corey Hart providing protection behind, should maintain production

10. Jimmy Rollins: Only Jimmy the Psychic and Granderson had a 20/20/20/20 season (doubles, triples, homers, steals)

9. Ryan Howard: Looking for 50 HRs, but missed out on the 1st or 2nd overall pick? Look no further, as long as you can stomach the Ks


Untouchables

8. Matt Holliday: Last season cemented him as an elite hitter. He has one of the most refined swings in the game, and his 3-year-old son can imitate nearly every batting stance in today’s game

7. David Wright: He consistently delivers in all 5 categories, and sits in the middle of one of the most potent lineups in the game

6. Chase Utley: Missed 30 games and was still la crème of a weak 2B crop

5. Hanley Ramirez: If not for loss of Cabrera, #s and age could justify taking him 2nd

4. Miguel Cabrera: .325-35-130-110 a realistic possibility in Detroit’s lineup

3. Jose Reyes: Mets’ tablesetter will pout in Rs + SBs


A League of Their Own

1b. Albert Pujols: .332-40-123-121-5 is his average line, and he has just hit his prime (.327-32-103-99-2 was considered a down year for him, as he had career lows in R, HR, RBI)

1a. Alex Rodriguez: New York environment no longer an issue, he’s back to record-setting pace

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