Futures – The Safe Bet

By: Andrew Katz

Over the years, betting on sports has evolved into a relatively inexpensive way that males ensure that boredom can be avoided on weeknights and weekends, especially now that the internet allows bets to be placed with a just a few clicks. Basically, lay down five dollars on a four team parlay, kick back, grab some beers, and watch as you come painstakingly close to winning the bet only to see your last team blow the lead in the final minutes and cost you hundreds of dollars of potential winnings. Fortunately, that’s alright in most fans’ minds because they just paid five dollars for a whole night of entertainment, which is far less costly and just as exciting as most other options like going to the local strip club or taking a date out to dinner. (Yes ladies, we do value sports higher than your company regardless of whether you ‘put out’ or not, it’s just in our blood.)
I’m here to tell you that I strongly feel that the four team parlay is on the verge of succumbing to an equally entertaining wager opportunity that offers high utility over an extended duration AND gives the bettor a far higher chance of success. That opportunity that I advocate so strongly is the concept of betting ‘Futures,’ specifically futures that deal with the number of wins a team will have over the stretch of the upcoming season. There are a few reasons why I feel futures to be a smart bet:

1) The lines are set at a number that theoretically has nothing to do the realistic amount of games a team is projected to win. The lines are actually set where the lines makers believe 50% of the people will bet on the over, and the other 50% will bet the under. It is set this way because bet takers pay out equally for both circumstances, but pay out less than 1:1, hence allowing them to profit regardless of the outcome. This is also the case on most singular sporting events where a spread is involved, however there is a distinct difference between the two cases. Concerning the latter case, if the Knicks are playing the Bucks and are five point underdogs, with a few lucky bounces, breaks, or calls by the referees, even if the Bucks played significantly better, the Knicks could easily cover that spread. Now let’s consider a Future where the over/under on the Knicks is 25 wins. If I have strong reason to believe that the Knicks are going to win over 25 games, it is going to take a lot more than bad bounces to shift the overall outcome of the season thus making it more likely for me to win assuming my assessment of the Knick as a team before the year starts is correct, all other factors held constant.

2) Because of the way the lines are set, research becomes all the more important, thus making it more likely for the smart bettor to come out on top. Generally, with the exception of teams who completely retool their rosters, teams’ over/under totals for the upcoming season are set relatively close to their record from the previous season. This being the case, there are only so many ways to gauge how a team’s record will differ from that of the previous season, the most typical ways include: assessing what effect offseason moves will have, monitoring the development of players, and taking into account strength of schedule. Researching these areas will give you much better idea of how team will perform than the person who simply bets by how they are feeling at the moment.

3) Even when your account is out of money because you lost it all on parlays, you still have your future to intensely focus on with all the free time you have! It’s kind of like that good feeling you get when you’re broke and somebody owes you money that you let them borrow months ago. Essentially, even though you’re not really up money, it feels like you are.

The MLB season is closer than you think, as evidenced by everyone in my fantasy keeper league trying to shake up their roster as much as possible, and seeing as futures will released soon, I thought I’d share some of my thoughts regarding potential future bets, if only to further elaborate on some of the ideas I touched on above. As a rule of thumb, I try to stay away from teams that finished in the middle of the pack the previous year, unless they made a lot of noise in the offseason, because the majority of them are just too tough to make a pick on with any confidence. The obvious ‘middle of the pack’ team that was certainly worth a bet this previous season was Boston. They made a lot of moves and only did things that would appear to make them improve in contrast to the roster they put forth in 2006. The over/under for them going into 2007 was over/under 91 wins. They pretty much tanked at the end of ’06 and still finished with 86 wins, coupled with their new additions, they appeared to be a relative lock for 91 the following year. Sure enough as the ’07 season came to a close Boston ended with 96 wins.
Now regarding the 2008 season, I have so far come up with two clubs who, if the lines are right, I feel very confident betting on:
The Tampa Bay Rays come into this season with a very solid lineup that has a nice mix of speed (Baldelli, Iwamura, Crawford,) power (Pena, Upton,) and young talent ready to start almost immediately (Longoria, Brignac.) Their pitching staff should also be vastly improved with four quality to outstanding starters in Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Sonnastine to go with an improved bullpen. The Rays only won 66 games last season so I doubt their over/under will be higher than 71 games and if that’s the case, I’m going with the over.
Prediction: 79-83
Contributing writer Anthony D’Amato happens to be a huge Indians fan, even though we reside in New Jersey, so every time the Tribe wins a ball game I always hear about it right away. Last season was really magical for them and they probably should have reached the 100 win plateau if not for a late season skid. This off-season though, Mark Shapiro has stood pat as every team in his division (yes, even the Royals) has improved by a noticeable margin. That being the case, I don’t know if I can envision the Indians edging out the Tigers or whatever other club may come out of this ultra competitive division. I expect odds makers to set the line for the Indians in the 91-93 range, which should end up being a bit high. I’ll be rooting for Cleveland for my buddy’s sake, but I see them getting the wild card at best (and unlikely considering Boston and the Yanks) with somewhere in 85-89 win range.
Prediction: 88-74

I want to be very clear though so please read carefully: Futures aren’t for everyone. If you’re not one for commitment and get bored with your women – I mean wagers after an extended period of time, stick with the parlays. Sure you’ve got a higher risk of losing your bet (contracting an STD?) but it’s always fun while it lasts. However, if you want to have a better shot of winning and are looking to settle down with that ‘special bet’ then take the time to pick out a real sweetheart of a future and look forward to the tough times and great times that lie ahead of you.

Billy Volek, Class of '08

By: Andrew Katz

Let’s face it. There is no way that the Chargers should have won Sunday. Every single factor was against them: playing on the road against the loudest crowd in football, Tomlinson out the second half, the Colts healthier than they had been all season, and to top it off, their QB who was having the best game of his career got injured coming down the stretch. Much like the 2004 World Series, when things looked bleakest for the huge underdog, an unlikely hero came through under the spotlight.

Billy Volek, who coming into the game had just 6 pass yards all season, led the Chargers down the field for a game-winning 8 play, 78 yard TD drive at a point in the game where even the Chargers’ own fans had just about written off their season. Now, the opportunity is there for Volek to enter a very exclusive club. Let’s call it the ‘Dave Roberts Club’ for lack of a better name and because he probably is the most well-known example. The qualifications are simple:

1) A player either makes a play (or in this case a small group of plays) that redefine his image in the minds of every fan of that team, or the moment, to the point where he may have been an everyday player before, but now is immortalized as a full blown hero.
2) When fans of the team think about the accomplishment that earned the player entrance into the World’s Most Exclusive and Hallowed Club, the fan Must get that goosebumpy, chilly feeling.
3) If you saw it live, it’s something you will never forget.

Granted, it will be easier for Volek to enter the club if the Chargers do in fact end up winning the Super Bowl this season, but it feels as if he already can do no harm in the minds of Charger fans (especially if he doesn’t have to play in the Patriots game this weekend.) Here are some examples of ‘members’ to give you an idea of exactly what kind of company Mr. Volek is entering:

Dave Roberts – Roberts’ steal might be the most incredible achievement here because it set in motion a comeback that faced the longest odds of any in sports’ history. Even today when he returns to Boston playing for an opposing team he receives cheers when he comes to the plate.

Bryce Drew – If you saw it, you remember it. With 2.5 seconds to go in a 1st round NCAA tournament game against #3 seeded Ole Miss, No Name A inbounded to No Name B who caught it in the air and without hitting the ground dished it to a streaking Drew. Drew proceeded to hit a leaner from well behind the arc as time expired giving the Crusaders the victory. I also believe this shot to be the sole reason (and rightfully so) why the Rockets selected Drew in the first round of the following year’s draft.

Endy Chavez – Not to brag or anything but….I WAS THERE and I’m pretty sure that I got the last available tickets considering that I was seated in The last row of the upper deck (I am not kidding, there was no person behind me, just a gated wall.) The fact that the Mets lost the game is regardless in respect to the fact that we feel Endy to be the savior. How magical was the moment? When was the last time you heard of someone receiving 2 curtain calls for one play?

Robert Horry – Big Shot Rob actually has a nice collection of game-winning shots to his name, but he seems to be remembered most for his ones as a Laker. His legend actually grew to such extents that two seasons ago in the playoffs, teams were actually double-teaming him at the very end of games on inbounds passes with players like Tony Parker and Tim Duncan on the court. For his career he’s only averaged 7 ppg is there any player you’d rather have shooting a last second shot?

Rex Chapman – Without a doubt, his shot against Sonics to tie the game is the most fun of all-time to recreate with your friends.

Matt Davison – This one happened a little farther back so our younger readers may be unacquainted with one of the greatest catches ever. I watched it live in ’97 and was rooting so hard against Nebraska. It really looked like they were going to lose this game and say goodbye to their title dreams until Frost drove the field and completed this pass on 4th and goal. He’s also always a great trivia question when you need a stumper.

This Sunday I will be cheering hard for the Bolts if only hoping that they can somehow beat New England and then win the Super Bowl so that Volek’s heroic performance isn’t lost in the shuffle of things. No, most ‘Dave Roberts Club’ members don’t deserve the legendary status they have ascertained, but that doesn’t mean we love (or hate) them any less for their accomplishments.

Feel free to post any other candidates for membership to this prestigious club, because who doesn’t love a one hit wonder!

What to expect in the next couple of weeks....

'08 Fantasy Baseball Preview
Scotch Tape
2 Journals regarding the National Championship Game
Fantasy Basketball Top 50 (Current)
NFL Mock Draft
...and assuming we remain relatively sober, much more!!

Bold Predictions

By: Andrew Katz

So I figured I’d mix it up today and instead of talking about projections and realistic expectations, we should travel to the opposite end of the spectrum and make some ‘bold predictions’ that probably won’t come true, but if they do I will be sure to reference this column six times a day, every day as the one time in life that I was in fact right about something. Let’s go with two predictions per sport/league that I claim to have reasonable knowledge about starting with the MLB.

MLB:

BP1 – Erik Bedard will be a Blue Jay on opening day.

Hey, it makes sense at least. Recall that earlier in the offseason the Jays were in serious talks with the Giants about landing either Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios. Luckily for Toronto I don’t foresee Bedard costing them their best hitter. A package consisting of Adam Lind, Dustin McGowan, Sergio Santos, and J.P. Arencibia should definitely be sufficient to lure Bedard away from the Orioles. This trade gives the Orioles much needed help in the youth department while making the Blue Jays pitching staff a top 5 rotation in baseball and, maybe more importantly, it does not break up the nucleus that J.P. Ricciardi has worked so hard to form. Whereas previously the Blue Jays were looking as if they were settling in for another .500 season, this trade potentially puts them in the 90-95 win range.

BP2 – The Rays will win 80 games for the first time in club history.

This is the year the Baby Rays finally grow up. Assuming everyone’s healthy, they have a very potent lineup centered around Crawford, Upton, Baldelli, Pena, Iwamura, and the kid, Evan Longoria. The Garza trade though, one of the fairest I’ve seen in years, may very well end up being the move that solidifies this team. The Rays’ rotation now has four starters who very well may be all-stars within the next season or two including Kazmir who is already at that level. Garza, after spending the better part of three years in the minors, is very polished and can be expected to contribute at least 10-11 wins this year. We’ve seen what James Shields has and contrary to what many thought, he did not tail off as the year went on but maintained solid numbers throughout the duration of the season. He could be considered a possible outside shot at the Cy this year (not really, but admit it, it sounds sexy.) Their fourth quality starter, Andy Sonnastine is possibly the most intriguing of them all. He rarely walks anyone and last season was either unhittable or gave it to the hitters on a silver platter. I suspect that we will be seeing more of the former this season, potentially Andy could post 15 victories and a sub-4.00 ERA. If the bullpen comes together expect 80 or even, dare I say, 90 wins.

NBA:

BP1 – Chris Paul will lead the Hornets to the NBA finals.

Yes, I do have an unhealthy obsession with CP3, however I don’t think that this is pushing the envelope too far. The Hornets have the best big man combination in the NBA in Chandler and West who are each dropping a double-double every night. Couple this with an outstanding three point shooter in Peja and some excellent young talent (Hilton Armstrong and Julian Wright) and Paul has all of the necessary components at his disposal to lead the Hornets to the finals. Of course, I assume that they avoid the Spurs who I feel are simply a more grizzled and experienced version of the Hornets.

BP 2 – The Wolves will show the greatest improvement from the first to second half in the wins column.

Laugh all you want but these Wolves are starting to shape up. Al Jefferson is already a superstar at the age of 22 and he will only get better. Corey Brewer and Craig Smith have come into their own the last month and are now starting to see bigger minutes and McCants is finally starting to live up to the hype that came with him on draft day. However, the biggest difference in this team will most certainly be the presence of Randy Foye. After averaging 10 ppg last season Foye appeared poised to jump to the next level, however his season was derailed before it even got started thanks to a knee injury. He should be back around the all-star break so expect his presence to be felt almost immediately. Taking all of these factors into account, and assuming that Randy Wittman can serve as a somewhat capable coach, the Wolves have the capability of winning 15-20 games after the break.

NFL:

BP1 – The Jaguars will defeat the Patriots en route to the Super Bowl.

The Jags are probably the only team who really has any shot at beating the Gods That Hail From the North. Their defense is filled with monsters so you know that they’re going to get pressure on Brady. They’ve got the best running back combination in the league and I actually can’t recall ever seeing a better one. But the factor that may ultimately put them over the top is David Garrard. Anyone who has watched the Pats knows that all season they have been creating turnovers almost at will when necessary (just look at the tapes of the Ravens and Eagles games and you’ll see what I mean.) Garrard will not allow this though. All season long the guy has been a machine at managing games and finally he’s starting to get some help from his receivers in Williams and Jones. Clearly, he’s going to have to take a couple of chances during the game, but the defense will keep the Jags in it, and if Garrard can capitalize on the opportunities he’s presented with then we could see the biggest upset in NFL history.

BP2 – The Jets will not draft Darren McFadden.

It’s bold because the Jets never draft anyone who we Jets fans want them to, so they’re probably thinking right now “Hmmm…Chris Long? Another lineman…yeah, that should piss ‘em off, either that or we’ll trade down.” Don’t worry; Run DMC will not be wearing green and white next season. I don’t even know why I’m even considering it an option.

NCAAF:

BP1 – Georgia and South Florida will win by more than a combined 50 points.

This seems like a lock when you actually look at it. First and foremost, a Leaf brother is starting for Oregon so they’re already down 20 points. You have to feel bad for them though. They were so much fun to watch when Dixon was starting and now they’re just plain awful and it’s really sickening to watch them play. Regarding the Georgia / Hawaii game, I don’t expect Georgia to fully shut down Colt Brennan. In fact, I think he’s good for about 350 yards and 3 TDs, however I give Hawaii zero chance at stopping Georgia, who probably improved the most from week one up to now. Look for Moreno to run all over the field as Georgia comes out on top by a score of 55-27.

BP2 – The Illinois / USC game will be the most exciting game of Bowl Season.

USC’s high powered offense, Juice running and passing all over the field, Ron Zook taking a team to a BCS bowl while the team who fired him is stuck at the Capital One Bowl (one of the most overlooked stories right now actually,) what’s not to like? If Illinois can get anything going on offense, and their track record says they will be able to, then we could see a game in the 40-37 range. I’m really hoping this game is as exciting as it could be. The Rose Bowl strikes me as the one bowl that hasn’t truly sold out to the system yet and I respect that. Let’s hope they never give in and this year’s game draws great ratings. Go tradition!

NCAAB:

BP1 – Michael Beasley and Bill Walker will lead Kansas State to a Big 12 Tournament Championship.

Of course every knows by now exactly how dominant Michael Beasley is, but considerably less know about the extremely high ceiling of Bill Walker. Walker was a five-star recruit coming into last year who appeared ready to play a year then make the leap to the NBA. Unfortunately, six games into his freshman campaign, Bill ruptured his ACL causing him to miss the rest of the season. Early this year, it appeared Kansas State was easing him back into a starter’s role but expect him to increase production in the coming months. By the time tournament time rolls around you’ll be hearing about the dynamic frosh duo of Walker and Beasley. Count on it.

BP2 – The St. Mary’s Gaels will become America’s Team by mid-March.

Move over Gonzaga (it makes me sad to say that, I love ‘em so much,) the WCC has a new champ in the making! Led by Patrick Mills along with others native to the Land Down Under, the Gaels are currently 10-1 and ranked second in the RPI (you know, the only relevant ranking system.) It’s tough to see, outside of Gonzaga, St. Mary’s having any real challenges in conference, so a 24-4 record and a top 5 ranking heading into the WCC tourney isn’t inconceivable. By the way, mark it down right now. January 5^th. 6:00 PM EST. In front of your television (or at the bar in my case.) St. Mary’s v. Texas. This could be one of the great games of the year.

The New DUI Test

Anyone can walk in a straight line or say the alphabet bombed. I have come up with a new test that is far more accurate - it tests reflexes, coherence, and the ability to drive a car. The new DUI test is an obvious one - JETMAN. If you haven't downloaded this Facebook application, I suggest you do it now. If you fear that it will be added to your mini feed, don't worry! There is an option so when you dl it, no one will know. The only people that will know you play Jetman are other nerdy Jetmaners - eventually 90% of your friends will dl this app, so this will be irrelevant anyway. To get back on track, if you score over 700 you should be allowed to drive. The guy is wearing a fucking jetpack - if you are able to navigate a man flying through the air around large blocks, there is no doubt in my mind that you can drive a car down a road.

Welcome!

Welcome to The Locker Room!! Our team consists of sports enthusiasts with diehard loyalties, although that doesn't taint our appreciation for each league and its constituents. Our goal is to offer insightful perspectives on the world of sports, from Fantasy Basketball Keepers and Power Rankings to previews and predictions. We encourage argument/discussion/debate, so feel free to post comments or e-mail us! Remember, the opinions expressed on this site are our own, and are not intended to offend anyone. Any and all humor is good-natured and lighthearted. We hope you enjoy our little corner of the web, and any questions/comments/suggestions are appreciated. Anything you'll find in a locker room, you'll find here!!



-- slashh