Bold Predictions

By: Andrew Katz

So I figured I’d mix it up today and instead of talking about projections and realistic expectations, we should travel to the opposite end of the spectrum and make some ‘bold predictions’ that probably won’t come true, but if they do I will be sure to reference this column six times a day, every day as the one time in life that I was in fact right about something. Let’s go with two predictions per sport/league that I claim to have reasonable knowledge about starting with the MLB.

MLB:

BP1 – Erik Bedard will be a Blue Jay on opening day.

Hey, it makes sense at least. Recall that earlier in the offseason the Jays were in serious talks with the Giants about landing either Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios. Luckily for Toronto I don’t foresee Bedard costing them their best hitter. A package consisting of Adam Lind, Dustin McGowan, Sergio Santos, and J.P. Arencibia should definitely be sufficient to lure Bedard away from the Orioles. This trade gives the Orioles much needed help in the youth department while making the Blue Jays pitching staff a top 5 rotation in baseball and, maybe more importantly, it does not break up the nucleus that J.P. Ricciardi has worked so hard to form. Whereas previously the Blue Jays were looking as if they were settling in for another .500 season, this trade potentially puts them in the 90-95 win range.

BP2 – The Rays will win 80 games for the first time in club history.

This is the year the Baby Rays finally grow up. Assuming everyone’s healthy, they have a very potent lineup centered around Crawford, Upton, Baldelli, Pena, Iwamura, and the kid, Evan Longoria. The Garza trade though, one of the fairest I’ve seen in years, may very well end up being the move that solidifies this team. The Rays’ rotation now has four starters who very well may be all-stars within the next season or two including Kazmir who is already at that level. Garza, after spending the better part of three years in the minors, is very polished and can be expected to contribute at least 10-11 wins this year. We’ve seen what James Shields has and contrary to what many thought, he did not tail off as the year went on but maintained solid numbers throughout the duration of the season. He could be considered a possible outside shot at the Cy this year (not really, but admit it, it sounds sexy.) Their fourth quality starter, Andy Sonnastine is possibly the most intriguing of them all. He rarely walks anyone and last season was either unhittable or gave it to the hitters on a silver platter. I suspect that we will be seeing more of the former this season, potentially Andy could post 15 victories and a sub-4.00 ERA. If the bullpen comes together expect 80 or even, dare I say, 90 wins.

NBA:

BP1 – Chris Paul will lead the Hornets to the NBA finals.

Yes, I do have an unhealthy obsession with CP3, however I don’t think that this is pushing the envelope too far. The Hornets have the best big man combination in the NBA in Chandler and West who are each dropping a double-double every night. Couple this with an outstanding three point shooter in Peja and some excellent young talent (Hilton Armstrong and Julian Wright) and Paul has all of the necessary components at his disposal to lead the Hornets to the finals. Of course, I assume that they avoid the Spurs who I feel are simply a more grizzled and experienced version of the Hornets.

BP 2 – The Wolves will show the greatest improvement from the first to second half in the wins column.

Laugh all you want but these Wolves are starting to shape up. Al Jefferson is already a superstar at the age of 22 and he will only get better. Corey Brewer and Craig Smith have come into their own the last month and are now starting to see bigger minutes and McCants is finally starting to live up to the hype that came with him on draft day. However, the biggest difference in this team will most certainly be the presence of Randy Foye. After averaging 10 ppg last season Foye appeared poised to jump to the next level, however his season was derailed before it even got started thanks to a knee injury. He should be back around the all-star break so expect his presence to be felt almost immediately. Taking all of these factors into account, and assuming that Randy Wittman can serve as a somewhat capable coach, the Wolves have the capability of winning 15-20 games after the break.

NFL:

BP1 – The Jaguars will defeat the Patriots en route to the Super Bowl.

The Jags are probably the only team who really has any shot at beating the Gods That Hail From the North. Their defense is filled with monsters so you know that they’re going to get pressure on Brady. They’ve got the best running back combination in the league and I actually can’t recall ever seeing a better one. But the factor that may ultimately put them over the top is David Garrard. Anyone who has watched the Pats knows that all season they have been creating turnovers almost at will when necessary (just look at the tapes of the Ravens and Eagles games and you’ll see what I mean.) Garrard will not allow this though. All season long the guy has been a machine at managing games and finally he’s starting to get some help from his receivers in Williams and Jones. Clearly, he’s going to have to take a couple of chances during the game, but the defense will keep the Jags in it, and if Garrard can capitalize on the opportunities he’s presented with then we could see the biggest upset in NFL history.

BP2 – The Jets will not draft Darren McFadden.

It’s bold because the Jets never draft anyone who we Jets fans want them to, so they’re probably thinking right now “Hmmm…Chris Long? Another lineman…yeah, that should piss ‘em off, either that or we’ll trade down.” Don’t worry; Run DMC will not be wearing green and white next season. I don’t even know why I’m even considering it an option.

NCAAF:

BP1 – Georgia and South Florida will win by more than a combined 50 points.

This seems like a lock when you actually look at it. First and foremost, a Leaf brother is starting for Oregon so they’re already down 20 points. You have to feel bad for them though. They were so much fun to watch when Dixon was starting and now they’re just plain awful and it’s really sickening to watch them play. Regarding the Georgia / Hawaii game, I don’t expect Georgia to fully shut down Colt Brennan. In fact, I think he’s good for about 350 yards and 3 TDs, however I give Hawaii zero chance at stopping Georgia, who probably improved the most from week one up to now. Look for Moreno to run all over the field as Georgia comes out on top by a score of 55-27.

BP2 – The Illinois / USC game will be the most exciting game of Bowl Season.

USC’s high powered offense, Juice running and passing all over the field, Ron Zook taking a team to a BCS bowl while the team who fired him is stuck at the Capital One Bowl (one of the most overlooked stories right now actually,) what’s not to like? If Illinois can get anything going on offense, and their track record says they will be able to, then we could see a game in the 40-37 range. I’m really hoping this game is as exciting as it could be. The Rose Bowl strikes me as the one bowl that hasn’t truly sold out to the system yet and I respect that. Let’s hope they never give in and this year’s game draws great ratings. Go tradition!

NCAAB:

BP1 – Michael Beasley and Bill Walker will lead Kansas State to a Big 12 Tournament Championship.

Of course every knows by now exactly how dominant Michael Beasley is, but considerably less know about the extremely high ceiling of Bill Walker. Walker was a five-star recruit coming into last year who appeared ready to play a year then make the leap to the NBA. Unfortunately, six games into his freshman campaign, Bill ruptured his ACL causing him to miss the rest of the season. Early this year, it appeared Kansas State was easing him back into a starter’s role but expect him to increase production in the coming months. By the time tournament time rolls around you’ll be hearing about the dynamic frosh duo of Walker and Beasley. Count on it.

BP2 – The St. Mary’s Gaels will become America’s Team by mid-March.

Move over Gonzaga (it makes me sad to say that, I love ‘em so much,) the WCC has a new champ in the making! Led by Patrick Mills along with others native to the Land Down Under, the Gaels are currently 10-1 and ranked second in the RPI (you know, the only relevant ranking system.) It’s tough to see, outside of Gonzaga, St. Mary’s having any real challenges in conference, so a 24-4 record and a top 5 ranking heading into the WCC tourney isn’t inconceivable. By the way, mark it down right now. January 5^th. 6:00 PM EST. In front of your television (or at the bar in my case.) St. Mary’s v. Texas. This could be one of the great games of the year.