18 January 2008
17 January 2008
Futures – The Safe Bet
Over the years, betting on sports has evolved into a relatively inexpensive way that males ensure that boredom can be avoided on weeknights and weekends, especially now that the internet allows bets to be placed with a just a few clicks. Basically, lay down five dollars on a four team parlay, kick back, grab some beers, and watch as you come painstakingly close to winning the bet only to see your last team blow the lead in the final minutes and cost you hundreds of dollars of potential winnings. Fortunately, that’s alright in most fans’ minds because they just paid five dollars for a whole night of entertainment, which is far less costly and just as exciting as most other options like going to the local strip club or taking a date out to dinner. (Yes ladies, we do value sports higher than your company regardless of whether you ‘put out’ or not, it’s just in our blood.)
I’m here to tell you that I strongly feel that the four team parlay is on the verge of succumbing to an equally entertaining wager opportunity that offers high utility over an extended duration AND gives the bettor a far higher chance of success. That opportunity that I advocate so strongly is the concept of betting ‘Futures,’ specifically futures that deal with the number of wins a team will have over the stretch of the upcoming season. There are a few reasons why I feel futures to be a smart bet:
1) The lines are set at a number that theoretically has nothing to do the realistic amount of games a team is projected to win. The lines are actually set where the lines makers believe 50% of the people will bet on the over, and the other 50% will bet the under. It is set this way because bet takers pay out equally for both circumstances, but pay out less than 1:1, hence allowing them to profit regardless of the outcome. This is also the case on most singular sporting events where a spread is involved, however there is a distinct difference between the two cases. Concerning the latter case, if the Knicks are playing the Bucks and are five point underdogs, with a few lucky bounces, breaks, or calls by the referees, even if the Bucks played significantly better, the Knicks could easily cover that spread. Now let’s consider a Future where the over/under on the Knicks is 25 wins. If I have strong reason to believe that the Knicks are going to win over 25 games, it is going to take a lot more than bad bounces to shift the overall outcome of the season thus making it more likely for me to win assuming my assessment of the Knick as a team before the year starts is correct, all other factors held constant.
2) Because of the way the lines are set, research becomes all the more important, thus making it more likely for the smart bettor to come out on top. Generally, with the exception of teams who completely retool their rosters, teams’ over/under totals for the upcoming season are set relatively close to their record from the previous season. This being the case, there are only so many ways to gauge how a team’s record will differ from that of the previous season, the most typical ways include: assessing what effect offseason moves will have, monitoring the development of players, and taking into account strength of schedule. Researching these areas will give you much better idea of how team will perform than the person who simply bets by how they are feeling at the moment.
3) Even when your account is out of money because you lost it all on parlays, you still have your future to intensely focus on with all the free time you have! It’s kind of like that good feeling you get when you’re broke and somebody owes you money that you let them borrow months ago. Essentially, even though you’re not really up money, it feels like you are.
The MLB season is closer than you think, as evidenced by everyone in my fantasy keeper league trying to shake up their roster as much as possible, and seeing as futures will released soon, I thought I’d share some of my thoughts regarding potential future bets, if only to further elaborate on some of the ideas I touched on above. As a rule of thumb, I try to stay away from teams that finished in the middle of the pack the previous year, unless they made a lot of noise in the offseason, because the majority of them are just too tough to make a pick on with any confidence. The obvious ‘middle of the pack’ team that was certainly worth a bet this previous season was Boston. They made a lot of moves and only did things that would appear to make them improve in contrast to the roster they put forth in 2006. The over/under for them going into 2007 was over/under 91 wins. They pretty much tanked at the end of ’06 and still finished with 86 wins, coupled with their new additions, they appeared to be a relative lock for 91 the following year. Sure enough as the ’07 season came to a close Boston ended with 96 wins.
Now regarding the 2008 season, I have so far come up with two clubs who, if the lines are right, I feel very confident betting on:
The Tampa Bay Rays come into this season with a very solid lineup that has a nice mix of speed (Baldelli, Iwamura, Crawford,) power (Pena, Upton,) and young talent ready to start almost immediately (Longoria, Brignac.) Their pitching staff should also be vastly improved with four quality to outstanding starters in Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Sonnastine to go with an improved bullpen. The Rays only won 66 games last season so I doubt their over/under will be higher than 71 games and if that’s the case, I’m going with the over.
Prediction: 79-83
Contributing writer Anthony D’Amato happens to be a huge Indians fan, even though we reside in New Jersey, so every time the Tribe wins a ball game I always hear about it right away. Last season was really magical for them and they probably should have reached the 100 win plateau if not for a late season skid. This off-season though, Mark Shapiro has stood pat as every team in his division (yes, even the Royals) has improved by a noticeable margin. That being the case, I don’t know if I can envision the Indians edging out the Tigers or whatever other club may come out of this ultra competitive division. I expect odds makers to set the line for the Indians in the 91-93 range, which should end up being a bit high. I’ll be rooting for Cleveland for my buddy’s sake, but I see them getting the wild card at best (and unlikely considering Boston and the Yanks) with somewhere in 85-89 win range.
Prediction: 88-74
I want to be very clear though so please read carefully: Futures aren’t for everyone. If you’re not one for commitment and get bored with your women – I mean wagers after an extended period of time, stick with the parlays. Sure you’ve got a higher risk of losing your bet (contracting an STD?) but it’s always fun while it lasts. However, if you want to have a better shot of winning and are looking to settle down with that ‘special bet’ then take the time to pick out a real sweetheart of a future and look forward to the tough times and great times that lie ahead of you.
02 January 2008
'08 Fantasy Baseball Preview (Position-wise)
It’s never too early to look ahead to next season, so here are my projected top players at their respective positions for the ’08 Fantasy Baseball campaign (keeping in mind that this is in regard to the ’08 season alone):
Catcher:
1) Russell Martin – Seems like a lock for 25/25 and with the addition of Jones and the maturation of some the Dodgers’ young stars 100 runs and 100 rbis are not out of the question.
2) Victor Martinez – Expect the same as last year…which just happens to be outstanding relative to his position on the diamond.
3) Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Could end up number one here by year’s end. The guy has 30+ HR potential and could reach that as soon as this season the wild cards being his team and playing time.
1B:
1) Albert Pujols – At first base, I’m looking for consistency and no one embodies the word more than Albert. I would expect 45/140/.335 this season, and that’s being conservative for a man of this caliber just hitting his prime.
2) Ryan Howard – Expect comparable numbers to Albert in every category expect average, where Albert probably will have about a 50 point edge.
3) Prince Fielder – Book him for 50 jacks this year, and expect his other numbers to go as the Brewers go.
2B:
1) B.J. Upton – (Bold!) He made tremendous strides last season and at the ripe old age of 24 this season, expect even bigger things. And yes, I do realize how good Chase is, but we are looking at a potential 35/35 guy who likely will hit in the .310 range this year in a very solid lineup.
2) Chase Utley – Probably the safer pick over Upton (clearly another one of my unhealthy crushes in case you couldn’t determine that from the blurb above) seeing as he is one of the most sure thing top 10 players.
3) Brandon Phillips – No reason why he can’t go 30/30 again, too bad he’ stuck on a team where he may never see 100 RBIs or Rs ever again.
Note: Fantasy owners should note, for strategy purposes, that second base is not nearly as weak as it used to be. Other potential studs for this upcoming season include Asdrubal Cabrera, Howie Kendrick, Dustin Pedroia, Dan Uggla, and Robinson Cano with Kinsler, Iwamura, Polanco, and Aaron Hill all shaping up to be more than serviceable. Second base has most certainly surpassed shortstop in terms of quality and may now be even stronger top to bottom than third.
SS:
1) Hanley Ramirez – Runs may suffer slightly due to the loss of Miggy, but otherwise the guy basically creates his own stat sheet. Expect similar numbers to last year only with more power.
2) Jose Reyes – His second half really worried me last year. Let’s just hope that he gets his act together and puts up the numbers he’s capable of. He could fluctuate anywhere between numbers 1-50 in the Y! rankings.
3) Jimmy Rollins – I hate this man, but that doesn’t stop me from recognizing that he always on base and batting in front of what’s possibly the scariest lineup in baseball.
3B:
1) Alex Rodriguez – Even if he has an ‘off-year’ you can expect 40/135/.290.
1a) Miguel Cabrera – My boy is finally playing on a major league caliber team! There is no limit for the numbers he could put up this season. My bold prediction: 46 HR 165 RBI .340 AVG 130 R.
3) Ryan Braun – No Sophomore Slump here! Expect him and Prince to keep mashing away. 20 steals is also very possible.
OF:
1) Matt Holliday – Just reaching his prime and he plays half his game at Coors.
2) Carl Crawford – This is the year I think he solidifies himself as a top 5 or 10 fantasy player. In that young, improving Rays lineup, he’s a lock for 100 runs and if they mix his role up in the lineup, 20 HR and 100 RBI suddenly sound very reachable.
3) Alfonso Soriano – He’ll be healthy this year so lock him for 35/25/.310 and if the rest of the lineup shows any life 100/100 as well.
4) Magglio Ordonez – Hope you got him cheap last year because the word’s out by now that he’s a monster.
5) Curtis Granderson – Fortunately, if you can’t get Magglio, people still tend to undervalue Granderson, who may be the most complete player in baseball. Remember how he had at least 20 2B, SB, and HR last season? Why rule out 30 this season?
6) Ichiro – He’s 35? Really? Because his numbers tell me that he’s 25 and that he’s going to play like it next season.
7) Vladimir Gurrerro- Had a down year last year with everyone injured, but now with the addition of Torii Hunter and possible emergence of Brandon Wood (Troy Glaus without the roids anyone?) Vlad should be back in form.
8) Alex Rios – Alex is just starting to show signs of the player he can be. He may be dealt for the right price, but even if that’s not the case, he should be in line for 30/110/110 with 15 steals. Also take into account that he will go later than you think in most fantasy drafts.
9) Hunter Pence – Think Granderson except he plays a much uglier style game (watch him swing and you’ll understand) but will get you close to the same results.
SP:
1) Johan Santana – Umm…Johan in a contract year, Johan in a contract year, Johan in a contract year.
2) Jake Peavy – The fact that he just got paid shouldn’t affect him at all. He’s a competitor and will do anything to win, as evidenced by offering to start on three days rest in September last season.
3) Brandon Webb – You know what you’re going to get: 16-20 W’s, 200+ IP, sub-4.00 ERA 1.20 WHIP.
4) C.C. Sabathia – C.C. also is in a contract year but I would expect a slight drop-off from last season if only because never before in his career was he able to stay healthy for a whole season AND get that kind of run support (plus the fact that every team in the AL Central improved except for Cleveland.)
5) Cole Hamels – Made a huge jump from first to second year in the bigs, no reason why he couldn’t win 20 this season.
6) Josh Beckett – Best pitcher on the best team so you know he’s a lock for 15 regardless of how he pitches (assuming he stays clear of blister related issues.) The question is will ’06 or ’07 Beckett show up.
7) John Lackey – Quietly won 19 last season and is my pick for ‘most value for draft location’ this year, even if he probably is going in the 3rd. On this team (improved hitting, solid bullpen) he could win 20+. Gave up 4+ runs only 18% of his starts last season so he’s always gonna have a shot at that W. I’m banking on 23 wins personally.
8) Roy Oswalt – Don’t be fooled, he hasn’t gotten any worse over the last few years, his team has. Still a front-line starter on any fantasy roster.
9) Fausto Carmona – One year wonder? Nope, more like the AL’s Brandon Webb, only younger.
10) Scott Kazmir – Calling it right now: this is the year he puts it all together for a Cy Young type season. Expect 3.30 ERA 250 Ks 1.25 WHIP 16+ wins (depending on how well the rest of his team plays around him, and according to previous columns, they should improve substantially.)
11) Tim Lincecum – Improved control the second half of the season and showed that he has all the makings of an absolute horse. Don’t expect any sort of Prior/Wood/Liriano type injuries ever, he has never once (since he started pitching) had to ice his shoulder after a start.
12) Dan Haren – I hear people talking about how he is going to run over teams now that he’s in the NL, but I feel quite differently on the matter. First of all, look at his splits from last season. His era rose every month culminating in an ERA close to 5. Second, pitching in Oakland is not like pitching in any other AL park. Just look at that park’s track record for producing quality pitchers who don’t fair nearly as well the season after they leave Oakland (Zito, Mulder, Hudson.) Essentially, it is the AL’s version of PetCo Park. Barry Zito found that it wasn’t so friendly in the NL last season and I feel Haren may have similar luck. However, considering that there is some evidence pointing towards Haren potentially dominating in the desert, he still is probably worth a top 12 ranking.
RP:
1) Jonathan Papelbon – Last season’s stats: 1.85 ERA .77 WHIP 37 Saves 84 Ks…any reason to believe he won’t at least maintain those kind of numbers?
2) Francisco Rodriguez – Not quite as dominant as Papelbon but should see equal if not more save opportunities.
3) Joe Nathan – He is the Rock of closers. The only question is if the Twins will unload him, and of course will such a move help or hinder his stats.
4) Billy Wagner – I like my closers to be reliable (maybe not to their teams, but to me year in and year out in the fantasy world) and Billy consistently puts up the numbers. Even if he is aging…
5) Mariano Rivera –…Billy is 2 years younger than Mo and…
6) Trevor Hoffman –… Mo is one year younger than Hoffman.
Prospects:
1) Clay Buchholz – He threw a no-no in his SECOND start and have you seen that curve!!?? Combine that with the fact he will be going up against 4th and 5th starters and this youngster could win 15+ this year.
2) Jay Bruce – Unreal power. It’s all about when he gets the call to the show.
3) Joba Chamberlin – Basically unhittable last year. How long will it take him to adjust to starting in the bigs?
4) Cameron Maybin – Opening day starter in the OF for the Fish. 20/20 right away is possible.
5) Ian Kennedy – Looked impressive last season. He will be the best 5th starter the Yanks have had in ages.
6) Jacoby Ellsbury – Please don’t trade him Theo. He was born to play here. 100 runs this season? For damn sure.
7) Justin Upton – Expect him to take some time to adjust like his brother, but he has a higher ceiling than B.J. according to scouts (and just to be clear, B.J. has no ceiling.)
8) Evan Longoria – Possible 3B on opening day for the Rays. Batting 5th or 6th in that lineup is any rookie’s dream.
25 December 2007
Top 50 Keepers (MLB edition)
By: Anthony D’Amato
Katz tackled basketball, so I decided to take baseball. Similar guidelines apply, with the next 3 seasons maintaining the heaviest weight. I believe putting up consistent stats in baseball is harder than in any other sport, due to the length of the season, injury contingency, and simply because hitting a mid-to-upper-90’s pitch is the hardest thing to do, especially with movement on the ball. So although Carlos Pena finished 2nd in the AL with 46 HRs, he’s only eclipsed 20 dingers and 80 ribbies one other time, and he’s never hit over .250 in a season in which he plays 100 or more games.
On The Bubble
Eric Byrnes: I need to see another few months of recent production. Changing teams in twice in 2005 clearly delayed his development
Chipper Jones: Injuries have always been a concern, and he isn’t getting any younger, but when he mashes when he’s in the lineup
Miguel Tejada: I don’t know how the whole steroids issue will play out, although the short porch in left field in
Brian Roberts: (see above)
Ian Kinsler: 20/20 at second base warrants a pick in the top 10 rounds
Torii Hunter: Now that he’s paid, will he put up the numbers to earn the paycheck?
Chris Young (SD): On the brink of greatness, and home field is a pitcher’s haven
Nick Markakis: Consistently produces day-to-day despite weak Orioles lineup
Not Yet Polished, but Definitely Solid
50. Chris B. Young (ARI): CB Young is the next Mike Cameron, but with more upside. The development of fellow youngsters Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew, and Justin Upton will only elevate his ceiling
49. Garrett Atkins: Might stumble a bit out of the gate, but picks it up as the season progresses. I held on to him last year in one of my leagues, and he rewarded me by picking up AVG in 2nd half
48. Derrek Lee: No longer an SB threat, but don’t forget he’s a former MVP. If he, Soriano, Ramirez can stay healthy and Fukudome delivers as advertised, 120 RBIs isn’t out of reach
47. Hunter Pence: He’ll produce across the board if he can avoid a sophomore slump
46. Chone Figgins: Plays 3 positions, provides 3 categories
45. Justin Verlander: Won 18 pitching in front of fearsome Tigers lineup… that now features Cabrera. Just pray he doesn’t blow his arm out
44. John Lackey: Fierce competitor is reminiscent of vintage Mussina – the kind of pitcher that wants the ball in big games/wants to close out close games
43. Cole Hamels: Mr. Effectively Wild cut his BBs, ERA, + WHIP while bumping up Ks last year
42. Carsten Charles Sabathia: AL Cy Young winner enters contract season, expect similar numbers in ‘08
41. Gary Sheffield: Health issues (shoulder), but slotted in the middle of power-packed lineup, and should be 100% by Opening Day
40. Aramis Ramirez: .300-30-100-80, if healthy all season long
What You See is What You Get, which is a Good Thing with this Group
39. Josh Beckett: He’s reached 200 IPs both years with
38. Manny Ramirez: First time in 9 seasons that he failed to reach 30 HR, 100 RBI
37. Carlos Lee: .290-30-100-90-10, take it to the bank
36. Victor Martinez: Elite catcher which is incredibly weak. 1st in HR, 1st in RBI, 2nd in AVG at that position
35. Adam Dunn: Slugger entering his prime, even added 9 SBs last year
34. Derek Jeter: As long as he’s batting in front of A-Rod, he’ll keep scoring a ton of runs
33. Russell Martin: 20/20 at C, and will only improve over next handful of seasons
32. Alex Rios: Power surge last year (+17 XBH between ’06-’07), and more coming. Vernon Wells once said he sees more power in Rios than Carlos Delgado had
31. Robinson Cano: He’s increased RBI + XBH totals each season
Yesterday Meets Tomorrow
30. Troy Tulowitzki: If not for Ryan Braun, he probably would’ve won NL ROY. A real gamer, he reminds me a bit of a young Jeter, with less speed and more power
29. Erik Bedard: Should land on a contender by midseason, which will net +5 W’s
28. Lance Berkman: Strong 2nd half indicates a rebound from an otherwise forgettable ‘07
27. Magglio Ordonez: Talk about earning your paycheck! But can he repeat?
26. Brandon Phillips: Former top-prospect removed mega-bust label with 30/30 season
25. Justin Morneau: He’s only one year removed from an MVP season. Depending on what spoils a Johan trade brings, he can return to form this season
24. Carlos Beltran: Injuries, slumps, and streaks balance out to solid (if inconsistent) numbers
23. Mark Teixeira: Smooth transition to NL despite moving away from Smallpark at
22. Ichiro: 7 straight seasons of 200+ Hs, 100+ Rs, 30 SBs (career .333 AVG)
21. Grady Sizemore: Expect 30/30, with 125 runs to boot. He’s got 5-tool written all over him and sits atop a formidable Indians lineup
20. Vladimir Guerrero: Age, back are issues but boy can he MASH
On The Brink of Superstardom
19. Curtis Granderson: Jimmy Rollins-lite
18. BJ Upton: Breakout ’07 should help this former 2nd overall pick realize his potential
17. Jake Peavy: The NL version of Johan
16. Ryan Braun: Always beware of sophomore slumps (same goes for Tulowitzki), but these are keeper rankings, and he will be the cutoff mark for elite 3Bs
15. Johan Santana: Went 1-8 vs CLE + DET last season, so a trade should bring back Cy-worthy line. I’d draft him in the top 2 rounds just for his 2nd half dominance alone (primetime performer during championship runs in head-to-head format)
14. David Ortiz: If his knees hold up, he could reach 150 RBIs with Ellsbury + Pedroia atop lineup
13. Carl Crawford: 100 Rs + 50 SBs guaranteed, with a realistic chance at .300 AVG + 15-20 HRs as a nice bonus
The Elite
12. Alfonso Soriano: Should return to 30/30 threat, so long as he stays healthy. If he could ever keep himself from flailing at terrible pitches, he’d easily maintain a .300 AVG and add 100 Rs
11. Prince Fielder: I stole him last year in the 9th round of our keeper draft (it was our first year), but he exceeded my expectations by 15 HRs. With Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, + Braun in front, and Corey Hart providing protection behind, should maintain production
10. Jimmy Rollins: Only Jimmy the Psychic and Granderson had a 20/20/20/20 season (doubles, triples, homers, steals)
9. Ryan Howard: Looking for 50 HRs, but missed out on the 1st or 2nd overall pick? Look no further, as long as you can stomach the Ks
Untouchables
8. Matt Holliday: Last season cemented him as an elite hitter. He has one of the most refined swings in the game, and his 3-year-old son can imitate nearly every batting stance in today’s game
7. David Wright: He consistently delivers in all 5 categories, and sits in the middle of one of the most potent lineups in the game
6. Chase Utley: Missed 30 games and was still la crème of a weak 2B crop
5. Hanley Ramirez: If not for loss of Cabrera, #s and age could justify taking him 2nd
4. Miguel Cabrera: .325-35-130-110 a realistic possibility in
3. Jose Reyes: Mets’ tablesetter will pout in Rs + SBs
A League of Their Own
1b. Albert Pujols: .332-40-123-121-5 is his average line, and he has just hit his prime (.327-32-103-99-2 was considered a down year for him, as he had career lows in R, HR, RBI)
1a. Alex Rodriguez: