Sorry Ray, You Made the Wrong Choice

By: Andrew Katz

When the 2007-08 College Football season began, the projected running back class heading for the upcoming NFL Draft did not look especially strong, especially the Senior class which was headed by several relatively lesser known players. However, as the season dragged on and stats were piled up, it became all too clear that the junior class was possibly the most talented running back class of the last ten years. Darren McFadden, Steve Slaton, and Ray Rice already had established names for themselves nationwide, but with the exception of McFadden the other two had not really come up in discussion for this year’s draft. On January 7 though, the day this great season finally came to a close, there now stood as many as seven running backs who, if they were to declare for the draft, could be first or early second round selections. This sort of change seems to have the worst impact on Slaton and Rice, two players who in most draft classes would be shoo-ins to be in the grouping of the first four running backs selected. Fortunately for them, they were still presented with the opportunity to return for a senior season and enter the 2009 NFL Draft, essentially guaranteeing (barring any sort of injury) a higher selection location. Remember, there are only so many teams every year, usually no more than five to seven, who are in need of a running back to the extent where they are willing to use a first or second round pick on that position. Because of this fact, there exists the possibility that in a deep running back class, an RB who is projected to be a top 60 pick could fall as far as day 2 without it being too much of a shock. Using this justification, when seeking council from the NFL’s Draft Advisory Committee, it would make sense, that unless Slaton and Rice received grades ranging no lower than mid-second round, that they stay in school. For the sake of clarification, I am focusing on Slaton and Rice because at the present time, they appear to the wild cards of the draft in terms of where they could fall if in fact both were to enter though, as was reported yesterday, Ray Rice has officially declared for the draft however Slaton has yet to announce his decision. Operating under the assumption that Slaton does in fact declare, here are my rankings for the top seven running backs who are expected to enlist for employment in the National Football League season:

1) Darren McFadden, Arkansas, Jr.
On a team that lacked talent outside of the skill positions, Darren showed exactly what he will be capable of at the pro level rushing for 1830 yards and 16 TDs. Unfortunately, even though he performed better at quarterback than many NFL QBs did season, it is unlikely that he will see many snaps under center at the next level. It may be asked of him in the NFL to put on a few pounds of muscle, but regardless he has outstanding vitals, standing at 6’2” 220 lbs. to go with his absurd 40 time of 4.40.
Projection: Top 5, possibly as high as 3 if the Falcons or Raiders get that spot via the coin flip.

2) Felix Jones, Arkansas, Jr.
Led D-IA in yds/carry this season with an unreal average of 8.7. The main question surrounding Felix right now is whether or not he is a three down back. Of course, the only reason that this question even exists is that he ‘backed up’ McFadden all year. Scouts are sure to love his explosive return game which should lead them to draw comparisons to the electric Maurice Jones-Drew. When it comes time for Felix to make up his mind this is the only factor he has to consider: is he willing to put in the required effort leading up to draft day in order to ensure that he is selected as high as possible.
Projection: After dazzling scouts at the combine, including a 40 time of sub-4.5, Jones moves up from a border line first rounder to a guaranteed top 20 pick.

3) A) Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois, Jr.
Mendenhall is a guy who wasn’t even rated as a top 15 RB at the start of the season but simply played his way into Day 1 consideration, anyone who watched the Rose Bowl knows that he is the real deal. His stock is never going to be any higher, so I cannot fault him in the least for deciding to make the jump. People tend to knock him for a lack of agility but I have a feeling that we are not talking about the next Ron Dayne here; Mendenhall is a north to south runner who can definitely play on Sunday.
Projection: Speaking of Ron Dayne, after he arrived in Houston, it almost looked as if his career might not be a complete bust, which leads me to speculate that a back like Mendenhall could succeed in the Texans system. I would not be surprised if Houston or Arizona took him with their 1st selections, but if they pass he would be seem to be a perfect fit for one of the already well put together playoff teams, Green Bay for example.

3) B) Jonathan Stewart, Oregon, Jr.
As with Mendenhall, you’re getting a guy who performed his best against quality opponents and showed the ability to break big runs. The sole difference between the two is that Stewart is not only an absolute tank, but at 5’11” 230 lbs. he also has the engine of a sports car as evidenced by his 4.50 40 time.
Projection: The Lions already have an outstanding aerial attack, so adding a monster like Stewart could catapult them into the top 3 in offensive production next season. Look for him to go mid to late first round but certainly no later than that.
At this point I’ve gone over the four running backs who the majority of scouts, not necessarily in this order, feel are the four best NFL prospects. As history tells us, this tends to be the cut off line for running backs likely to be taken in the first round. In fact, in the last twelve NFL drafts, only once, 2000, were there more than four running backs picked in round one. Thus, even though first round may be found in the RBs I have yet to discuss, it is unlikely that they will be drafted at a level equal to their capabilities.

5) Ray Rice, Rutgers, Jr.
Rice improved way more than the marginal improvement that the numbers show from his sophomore to junior years. Consider that Rutgers was playing primarily with a line of underclassmen this season and still managed to rush for 300 more yards than the 2006 campaign and it’s easy to see him reeling off 100 yard games in the NFL. The problem is that even though he may have put together the best season of any of the running backs listed here, his size is the most glaring question among any of these future NFL candidates.
Projection: Rice will be a second round pick in this draft, however in a weaker class next year (in which he certainly would have been a top 3 back) he would have more than likely been a first rounder. In a draft like 2008 though, where there are so many quality running backs, the ‘bust potential’ on Rice, almost entirely due to his size, will in all likelihood keep him from being a first round pick.

6) Steve Slaton, West Virginia, Jr.
Steve, you’ve still got a chance to save yourself. Do not declare for this year’s draft, work hard this spring in order to set aside any durability issues, win a national title in ’09, and then be a first rounder two springs from now. To me at least, that has a better ring to it then, “With the 68th pick in the 2008 NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons select Steve Slaton.” Right now, the two questions that scouts have to have regarding Slaton are size and health and it is very tough to alleviate injury concerns in one offseason. Just ask Willis McGahee to fell about twenty spots in the draft after he blew out his knee. The size issue is losing importance every year as more ‘scat backs’ are becoming three down competent starters.
Projection: If he comes out this year, Slaton ends up as a late second or early third round pick. If he stays one more, he’s likely to be selected in the 20’s.

7) Jamaal Charles, Texas, Jr.
A lot of people are much higher on Charles, but I have a bad feeling about him. Sure he has great vitals at 6’1” 200 and a 4.35 40, but he fared miserably in Texas’ three losses this season, failing to break the 100 yard mark in each game. If I’m drafting a running back who will one day start for my football team, I want a guy who has proven that he can carry a team, or at least produce effectively, when the rest of the team is struggling. I not only question his drive, but also his work ethic. Undoubtedly, he has been told by coaches that for his size he should have at least another 15 pounds of muscle on him, and if he’s not even willing to make the commitment in that department, can you really rely on him to give his heart and soul to an NFL team seven months of the year?
Projection: Scouts will look past his flaws and potentially select him ahead of Slaton or even Rice. A team may reach for him in the late first round, but he should be a lock for round two at worst.

To emphasize my point that Rice and Slaton have really nothing to gain from entering this draft let’s quickly look at the Draft and group teams in terms of their likeliness to pick an RB in the first two rounds.

NEED HELP AT THE RB:
Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Green Bay

MAY TAKE AN RB TO IMPROVE TEAM:
New England, Arizona, Cowboys, Seahawks

WOULD TAKE ONE BECAUSE HE”S THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE:
Oakland, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Atlanta

NO CHANCE:
Everyone else

Right away we can eliminate Chicago and Houston because both have even more glaring needs than RB. Green Bay seems like the most sure thing of the 1st class of team to take an RB, Detroit may choose to plus a hole on D and then take an RB or vice versa. The only way New England takes an RB is if McFadden falls, which he will not so we can cross them off the list. The Cowboys and Seahawks seem like good bets to take an RB but not even close to a sure bet, and Arizona will probably be satisfied with the Edge for another year and use their picks to toughen up their D. Oakland, NYJ, or Atlanta will pick an RB, McFadden, but only one of the three will pick a running back. Pittsburgh only uses a pick on a running back if Willie Parker can’t return from injury (unlikely.)

If I had to bet, I’d say:
(1st Round)
McFadden goes to the Raiders
Felix Jones to the Cowboys
Mendenhall is a Seahawk
Stewart will go to the Packers

(2nd Round)
Ray Rice to either the Lions or Jets
Jamaal Charles to Houston

(3rd Round)
Steve Slaton to the Lions or Jets

It really just doesn’t make sense for Slaton or Rice to come out this year and Rice’s family, coaches, and advisors did a horrible job making it clear to him that the disadvantages outweigh the advantages. As for Slaton, listen to me Steve, I know you are an avid reader of The Locker Room, so take my advice and you can thank me later via some sort of generous monetary compensation.