ACC - Atlantic Coast Catastrophe

By: Andrew Katz

Let’s quickly look at some statistics concerning the bowl performance of three conferences over the past four years:

Conference 1: 14-16

Conference 2: 11-8

Conference 3: 11-5

Quick.

Associate the records with three conferences from the following pool: ACC, Big 10, Big East, MWC, Pac 10, SEC, WAC.

If you answered that Conference 1 was the ACC, Conference 2 was the Big East, and Conference 3 was the MWC, then congratulations, you probably aren’t an individual who falsely thinks the ACC is still a power conference!

One of my favorite arguments that proponents of the ACC (or any number of other conferences such as the Big 10 or Pac 10 certain years) make is that the Big East is awful, overrated, and does not deserve the automatic entry into a BCS bowl game. As we come to the close of another Bowl Season, it has become more abundantly clear than ever that this is nothing more than a myth. In fact, if any conference deserves to have its automatic entry revoked, it is the ACC.

When the ACC stole arguably the Big East’s three best teams four years ago, it was anticipated that the Atlantic Coast Conference would pass the SEC as the great conference Division I-A Football. Weirdly enough, the ACC has continued the trend that began before the ACC’s acquisition of Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech, of failing to not only win BCS games, but also earn that coveted at At-Large BCS spot as well. Over the past eight seasons (four before the merger and four after) the ACC is a combined 0-8 in BCS games. That is an almost unfathomable statistic. How can a conference that had so many ‘powerhouse programs’ playing in it fail to not only win a single game, but also fail to send a single at-large team to a BCS bowl over this time period? The answer many ACC lovers will give you is that the teams in this conference beat up on each other throughout the season, thus piling up the losses, making them appear less attractive to those who choose the At-Large teams. As history tells us, this is not the case. The SEC, the conference that has the undisputed best conference in the land for the 21^st century, has long had the reputation as one that doesn’t allow its teams’ records to reflect exactly how good they are due to the strength of their schedule. However, this has not prevented the SEC from sending At-Large teams to BCS games three of the past eight years. To address the other half of the issue of the ACC failing to perform well, there really can be no reason for why the ACC is 0-8 in BCS games over the previously stated time span, other than that many of these once hailed programs have failed to progress at the same rate that the teams in other power conferences have. Even more appalling for the ACC should be the fact that over this tumultuous period, that overrated conference that is the Big East, is a mere 6-2 (including a record of 3-1 since 2004.)

Now, it would seem best to go deeper still, and break down the two conferences (ACC and Big East) and assess how they have performed since the monumental restricting of 2004 and how they can be reasonably expected to perform in the future.

ACC:

Boston College – The Eagles, who moved to the ACC in 2005, have been consistently decent over the past three seasons (losing three games each year, which sadly has become the mark a team needs to reach in order to finish the season atop the ACC) lose their starting QB and best RB and WR for next year. It would be unfeasible to expect more than 7-8 wins out of BC next season, however just because you finish the regular season with 8 wins, as Florida State proved in 2005, doesn’t mean you won’t be able to play in a BCS game.

Virginia Tech – No one can doubt that Frank Beamer is a hell of a coach, but Frank as recruiter is another issue. He has benefited enormously from the lack of quality teams in the ACC, which has allowed Virginia Tech to win the games that they should win en route usually achieving solid records year in and year out. It’s interesting to watch what happens though, when the Hokies face a quality non-conference foe (LSU and Kansas this year and Georgia the year before), the Va. Tech is simply over-matched talent-wise and it shows. There’s no reason think that won’t happen again in ’08.

Wake Forest – Jim Grobe’s offensive gameplan is tricky; trick enough in fact to confuse the ACC for a year and allow the Deacons to reach a BCS game. One year later, Wake still managed to win 9 games, but examining those wins, they were less than impressive considering that only 2 of them were against teams over .500. Expect teams to further adjust to Grobe’s offense next season, and with the departure of the man who broke Tory Holt’s ACC record for most catches in a season, Kenneth Moore, it’s tough to imagine this team winning more than 7 games.

Virginia – Umm…they lost to Wyoming this season. Wyoming was 5-7. Even though following that they reeled off a seven game win streak over above-average at best teams, there’s really nothing impressive here. The only way they win anywhere near 9 games next season is if they schedule Middle Tennesse State, Duke, Miami, NC State, and Wyoming again, and this time actually win all of those games.Frankly, the Cavaliers seem more likely to revert back to their play from the 2006 season when they went 5-7.

Miami & Florida State – Two teams that have struggled recently for opposite reasons. The Seminoles have a great coach in Bobby Bowden, a true legend who up to this season simply hasn’t been recruiting the type of players necessary to compete at a BCS level. However, his traditionalist ways on the field may also have hurt them (seeing as they seemed to have failed to adapt to changing times) as much as the school’s liberal policy regarding academics. Miami on the other hand, always has one of the nation’s best recruiting classes, granted the majority of these athletes are future murderers, however since Butch Davis walked away, The U has had trouble finding a coach who has the ability to turn these players into a team. I find it hard to see either teams topping 8 wins until drastic changes are made within the programs.

Maryland – The Fridge has been a quality recruiter (Vernon Davis, Shawn Merriman, Shaun Hill) and proved himself to be an able head coach (guiding the Terps to the Orange Bowl in ’03) but hasn’t he been living off a singular BCS bid a little long? Three of the past four seasons for Maryland have ended in sub .500 seasons, including five losses this season by 8 points or less. Ralph’s got to shake something up here because even if he gets another NFL caliber recruit Maryland is probably still only a 7 win team at best.

Duke – 4-42 pretty much sums it up; the guaranteed win for the ACC for the last four seasons.

North Carolina – The one ACC team that actually shows that they improve as opposed worsen in the not so distant future! Butch Davis knows exactly what he’s doing here, and has UNC showing signs of life in ACC play for the first time since the Dre’ Bly era. In his first full year recruiting he’s already landed a five-star recruit and a top-50 recruiting class in the nation. Minimum: expect a bowl game next year, and with the odds you’ll get this team is worth dropping a little loot on to take the ACC.

Clemson – This team was vastly overrated throughout the entire season, failing to pick up a single quality win en route to somehow attaining a #15 ranking heading into their bowl game which, predictably, they lost to SEC foe Auburn. They always schedule at least one (and usually two) I-AA schools to enhance their record, and I’m not even including Duke. Their strength of schedule becomes evident during bowl season during which they are 1-2 over the last four seasons (great story behind why they’re not 1-3: the day following the infamous Pistons/Pacers brawl, Clemson and South Carolina did their best to top that affair, culminating in an announcement that neither team would partake in a bowl game that year.)

N.C. State – They were 5-7 this year, 3-9 in ’06, 7-5 in ’05, 5-6 in ’04. It would be very generous to give them 6 wins next season, so let’s give’em 4.

Georgia Tech – The consummate ACC team. Formula: Don’t suck too much + beat Duke + be bowl elgible + the inability to beat any team with actual talent – the ability to win the big game. Okay, so they’ll win 6-9 games next season, never beat anybody really good and probably lose their bowl game…wait a minute, which ACC team are we talking about?

Big East:

West Virginia – BCS wins 2 of the last 4 seasons, what more can you ask? Just imagine if Slaton stays (and if I were him, I would strongly consider it in order to shed any sort of injury prone label,) a back field of White, Slaton, and Devine…does it even matter who the receivers are? It really wasn’t fair what they did to Oklahoma, and if White stays healthy (as we’ve seen is so important) a national title is well within grasp.

Syracuse – Okay, so they’re pretty awful, but they did beat Louisville and don’t have anywhere near the history of losing that Duke has so there is potential for improvement considering they have a top 50 recruiting class on the way.

Pittsburgh – Since making a BCS appearance during the ’04 season, they’ve basically played .500 ball but things are looking up: two wins over top-25 foes (Cincinnati and West Virginia) and the #23 recruiting class in the nation, there is no reason to believe that Pitt can’t win 8-9 games next season.

Connecticut – Since joining the Big East, the Huskies have had their ups and downs but this season they put together a solid team that could have been 10-3 if not for having to play a Bowl Game in Wake Forest’s back yard. The core is back next season and so is Randy Edsell who basically took a team full of nobodies to a 9 win season. 10 wins? Why not.

Louisville – This team is in a transition phase right now, but seeing as we are assessing the last four seasons here...2007 Orange Bowl Champions! Seriously though, Bobby Petrino built an excellent program here before he took a vacation in Atlanta, so as long as Steve Kragthorpe isn’t too incompetent this program should be back in contention within a year or two…what’s that? They hired the Duke coach as an assistant? F_ck.

Rutgers – What a turnaround from 4-7 in ’04 to 11-2 in ’06! Granted they lost key non-skill position players this season, but there are high hopes for next season if Rice stays. The line, which consisted mainly of young, talented underclassmen, should be ready to block Rutgers to a 10 win season.

South Florida –Even if USF did falter as the season went on no one expected them to be THAT good anyway. Led by Sophomore Matt Grothe, this young team should only continue to improve and could potentially challenge for an At-Large BCS berth next season, amazing considering that they just joined the Big East in ’05.

Cincinnati – They steadily improved each of their three seasons in the Big East, ending in a 10 win season this year. They could take a step back next season after losing Ben Mauk, however Big East Coach of the Year Brian Kelly should be able to bleed 8 wins of them.

Well, those breakdowns were kind of pointless seeing as the statistics already backed up the fact that the ACC has simply become a substantially worse conference than it was in the ‘90s, but it was fun none the less.

There is but one more topic to discuss, and that would be 'The Prestige Factor' aka the reason why those who are relatively neutral (or simply life-long ACC supporters) on this debate may feel the ACC to be better than conferences such as the Big East. To clarify, I throw out the names 'Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Boston College.' Casual fans tend to associate these teams with rich histories filled with big games, championships, and NFL stars. However, if I mention the teams 'West Virginia, South Florida, Cincinnati, Rutgers' people will more likely than not, register these names simply as colleges that just happen to have football programs that play in a conference that has been recently thrown together. Essentially, unless one actually takes the time to analyze the numbers, than that person will more than likely assume that the past 'Prestige' associated with the football programs in the ACC translates to greatness in today's game. Clearly, this is not the case.