Futures – The Safe Bet

By: Andrew Katz

Over the years, betting on sports has evolved into a relatively inexpensive way that males ensure that boredom can be avoided on weeknights and weekends, especially now that the internet allows bets to be placed with a just a few clicks. Basically, lay down five dollars on a four team parlay, kick back, grab some beers, and watch as you come painstakingly close to winning the bet only to see your last team blow the lead in the final minutes and cost you hundreds of dollars of potential winnings. Fortunately, that’s alright in most fans’ minds because they just paid five dollars for a whole night of entertainment, which is far less costly and just as exciting as most other options like going to the local strip club or taking a date out to dinner. (Yes ladies, we do value sports higher than your company regardless of whether you ‘put out’ or not, it’s just in our blood.)
I’m here to tell you that I strongly feel that the four team parlay is on the verge of succumbing to an equally entertaining wager opportunity that offers high utility over an extended duration AND gives the bettor a far higher chance of success. That opportunity that I advocate so strongly is the concept of betting ‘Futures,’ specifically futures that deal with the number of wins a team will have over the stretch of the upcoming season. There are a few reasons why I feel futures to be a smart bet:

1) The lines are set at a number that theoretically has nothing to do the realistic amount of games a team is projected to win. The lines are actually set where the lines makers believe 50% of the people will bet on the over, and the other 50% will bet the under. It is set this way because bet takers pay out equally for both circumstances, but pay out less than 1:1, hence allowing them to profit regardless of the outcome. This is also the case on most singular sporting events where a spread is involved, however there is a distinct difference between the two cases. Concerning the latter case, if the Knicks are playing the Bucks and are five point underdogs, with a few lucky bounces, breaks, or calls by the referees, even if the Bucks played significantly better, the Knicks could easily cover that spread. Now let’s consider a Future where the over/under on the Knicks is 25 wins. If I have strong reason to believe that the Knicks are going to win over 25 games, it is going to take a lot more than bad bounces to shift the overall outcome of the season thus making it more likely for me to win assuming my assessment of the Knick as a team before the year starts is correct, all other factors held constant.

2) Because of the way the lines are set, research becomes all the more important, thus making it more likely for the smart bettor to come out on top. Generally, with the exception of teams who completely retool their rosters, teams’ over/under totals for the upcoming season are set relatively close to their record from the previous season. This being the case, there are only so many ways to gauge how a team’s record will differ from that of the previous season, the most typical ways include: assessing what effect offseason moves will have, monitoring the development of players, and taking into account strength of schedule. Researching these areas will give you much better idea of how team will perform than the person who simply bets by how they are feeling at the moment.

3) Even when your account is out of money because you lost it all on parlays, you still have your future to intensely focus on with all the free time you have! It’s kind of like that good feeling you get when you’re broke and somebody owes you money that you let them borrow months ago. Essentially, even though you’re not really up money, it feels like you are.

The MLB season is closer than you think, as evidenced by everyone in my fantasy keeper league trying to shake up their roster as much as possible, and seeing as futures will released soon, I thought I’d share some of my thoughts regarding potential future bets, if only to further elaborate on some of the ideas I touched on above. As a rule of thumb, I try to stay away from teams that finished in the middle of the pack the previous year, unless they made a lot of noise in the offseason, because the majority of them are just too tough to make a pick on with any confidence. The obvious ‘middle of the pack’ team that was certainly worth a bet this previous season was Boston. They made a lot of moves and only did things that would appear to make them improve in contrast to the roster they put forth in 2006. The over/under for them going into 2007 was over/under 91 wins. They pretty much tanked at the end of ’06 and still finished with 86 wins, coupled with their new additions, they appeared to be a relative lock for 91 the following year. Sure enough as the ’07 season came to a close Boston ended with 96 wins.
Now regarding the 2008 season, I have so far come up with two clubs who, if the lines are right, I feel very confident betting on:
The Tampa Bay Rays come into this season with a very solid lineup that has a nice mix of speed (Baldelli, Iwamura, Crawford,) power (Pena, Upton,) and young talent ready to start almost immediately (Longoria, Brignac.) Their pitching staff should also be vastly improved with four quality to outstanding starters in Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Sonnastine to go with an improved bullpen. The Rays only won 66 games last season so I doubt their over/under will be higher than 71 games and if that’s the case, I’m going with the over.
Prediction: 79-83
Contributing writer Anthony D’Amato happens to be a huge Indians fan, even though we reside in New Jersey, so every time the Tribe wins a ball game I always hear about it right away. Last season was really magical for them and they probably should have reached the 100 win plateau if not for a late season skid. This off-season though, Mark Shapiro has stood pat as every team in his division (yes, even the Royals) has improved by a noticeable margin. That being the case, I don’t know if I can envision the Indians edging out the Tigers or whatever other club may come out of this ultra competitive division. I expect odds makers to set the line for the Indians in the 91-93 range, which should end up being a bit high. I’ll be rooting for Cleveland for my buddy’s sake, but I see them getting the wild card at best (and unlikely considering Boston and the Yanks) with somewhere in 85-89 win range.
Prediction: 88-74

I want to be very clear though so please read carefully: Futures aren’t for everyone. If you’re not one for commitment and get bored with your women – I mean wagers after an extended period of time, stick with the parlays. Sure you’ve got a higher risk of losing your bet (contracting an STD?) but it’s always fun while it lasts. However, if you want to have a better shot of winning and are looking to settle down with that ‘special bet’ then take the time to pick out a real sweetheart of a future and look forward to the tough times and great times that lie ahead of you.