22 January 2008
NBA Mid-Season Awards + The Real All-Star Rosters
MVP:
Chris Paul - CP3 has almost single-handedly lead a team that only three above-average players to an excellent record in one of the most difficult divisions in the NBA. His stats back up his play as he's averaging 20 points, 10 assists, and 3 steals a game while managing to be extremely efficient both in terms of shooting and turnovers. Without him it is very tough to see the Hornets with more than 15 wins.
Runner up: Caron Butler
Rookie of the Year:
Kevin Durant - The fact that Durant is dropping about 20 points a game puts him head and shoulders above the rest of this mediocre rookie class.
Runner up: Al Horford
Defensive Player of the Year:
Josh Smith - He's got more energy than anyone in the game and is a big reason why the Hawks are in the middle of the playoff race for the first time since the mid-90's. The fact that Josh leads the league in steals + blocks at 5.1 per game emphasizes the fact that he's making the biggest difference on the defensive end on a team that really doesn't possess much of a threat on that end of the ball.
Runner up: Marcus Camby
Sixth Man of the Year:
Leandro Barbosa - It's a crime that this potential all-star contuinuously rides the bench behind the likes of Raja Bell and Boris Diaw. Even doing so he's averaging 17/3/3 and contributes in ways that the stats can't even begin to show. I can only hope that he is extremely unsatisfied with his current situation so my Knickerbockers could sign him to a lucrative long term contract when the opportunity presents itself.
Runner up: Manu Ginobilli
Most Improved Player of the Year:
Chris Kaman - It's been great watching play this year, now that he's no longer on Ridilin. He's a lock to continue being an 18/14/3 kind of force for the rest of the year, numbers that many thought he would never be capable of before the season began.
Runners up: Jose Calderon, Andrew Bynum
Coach of the Year:
Eddie Jordan - After Gilbert Arenas went down with an injury a week in, the season looked bleak for this once playoff-hopeful Wizards team. Jordan gave no ground though, and has led an overacheiving Washington club to an almost guaranteed playoff berth and possibly much more.
Runner up: Mike Woodson
Executive of the Year:
Kevin Pritchard - The job he's done with the Blazers is incredible and no one else is even close to winning this honor.
Runner up: Nope
NBA All-Star Teams (at least those who deserve it)
East:
F LeBron James
F Kevin Garnett
C Dwight Howard
G Andre Iguodala
G Jose Calderon
Reserves:
F Caron Butler
F Jason Richardson
F Antawn Jamison
C Chris Bosh
G Mo Williams
G Michael Redd
G Chauncey Billups
West:
F Dirk Nowitzki
F Carlos Boozer
C Amare Stoudemire
G Kobe Bryant
G Chris Paul
Reserves:
F Shawn Marion
F David West
C Chris Kaman
C Yao
G Steve Nash
G Baron Davis
G Allen Iverson
As opposed to the Western roster, the East has the potential to really gel together and play as a team. Every player, except maybe JRich who lives for the 3-pointer, plays with the team in mind. For this reason, I feel that the East will come out ahead in the most boring, yet fudnamentally sound all-star game in recent memory.
20 January 2008
2008 NCAA Alumni Pride Tourament, 1st Round, Day 1
1st Round Scores:
Eddie Griffin Region:
(4) Marquette 11
(5) Arkansas 1
Absolute domination to open the tournament. Between Deiner draining threes and Dwyane throwing it down, even with a great scorer in Joe Johnson, the Razerbracks never had a real shot.
Key Stats:
Marquette:
Novak - 5 pts/3 rbs.
Wade - 4 pts/2 asts.
Arkansas:
Johnson - 1 pts/1rbs.
Bobby Phills Region:
(1) UNC 11
(8) Stanford 4
UNC looks like they're going to run away with the game but the prototypical point guard, Brevin Knight, is keeping it close. I kind of feel bad though, watching the much taller VC posting up Knight, and guiding UNC to a 5-3 lead. The UNC fans don't stay loud for long though, as Josh Childress throws the ball through Sheed's legs (I'm surprised he didn't get shot) and jams it home. Unfortunately, this game becomes a blow out very quickly after Jamison hits three straight put-backs to basially seal the win.
Key Stats:
UNC:
Jamison - 8 pts/3 rbs/1 ast/ 1 stl (8/8 FG)
Carter - 2 pts/2 asts/2 stl
Wallace - 1 pts/3 rbs/3 asts
Stanford:
Childress - 2 pts
Collins - 2 pts/4 rbs
(2) Duke 11
(7) Gonzaga 2
Duke takes a quick 5-0 lead thanks to Grant Hill's solid ball distribution. The next play can only be described as the longest post-up seaquence in the history of basketball: Elton Brand, posting up Ronny Turiaf, fakes left and right for a good eighty seconds (I am not joking) before banging out a turn around jumper. At last, Gonzaga gets the ball, via a rebound, and we finally have a chance to see the one true mismatch of this game, THE Scoring Machine vs. Carlos the traitor Boozer. Morrison easily drives past Boozer, however he finds the force known as Elton Brand in his way, ready to slap his shot away. Morrison does manage to score some points, via some long Morrison jumpers, but in the end they simply could compete the size of the Blue Devils.
Key Stats:
Duke:
Hill - 5 pts/ 3 rbs/ 2 asts
Boozer - 1 pts/1 rbs/3 blks
Brand - 5 pts/2 rbs/1 asts/2 blks
Gonzaga:
Morrison - 2 pts/3 rbs
Turiaf - 3 TOs
(3) UCLA 11
(6)Utah 6
Baron is putting his team on his back and has UCLA out to a quick lead, but Utah fights back and ties the game at 4-4 with a back door pass from Miller to Bogut. After Utah takes 6-5 lead thanks to a couple of Andre Miller jumpers Davis and friends roll off six straight en route to a 11-6 victory.
Key Stats:
UCLA:
Davis - 5 pts/1 rbs/1 asts (4/7 FG)
Gadzuric - 5 pts (5/6FG)
Kapono - 1 pts/3 asts/2 stls
Utah:Miller - 4 pts/1 asts
Bogut - 2 pts/4 rbs/2 blks
Bison Dele Region:
(1) Arizona 11
(8) Minnesota 7
In typical fashion, Gilbert makes the play of the tournament so far, splitting two defenders and driving right by a third for an easy lay in. The next few minutes were followed by a lot of turnovers until Joel Przybilla (who knew!) took over and led the Golden Gophers back tie the game at five a piece. Despite the valient effort, Agent Zero simply will not let his alma mater go down, as he dishes and swishes the Cats to a 10-5 advantage, capped by a long-range bomb, shortly followed by a Jefferson lay-up to seal the victory.
Key Stats:
Arizona:
Arenas - 6 pts/3 asts/2 stls
Iguodala - 4 pts/6 rbs/5 asts (5 TOs)
Jefferson - 1 pts/ 5 rbs
Minnesota:Pryzbilla - 5 pts/ 6 rbs/ 1 asts/3 stls/2 blks
(2) Texas 7
(7) Cincy 11
Early on Kenyon Martin is exhibiting the type of passion for his Bearcats that he never really showed as an NBA player, soaring through the air for rebounds and diving for loose balls. Durant is keeping Texas in this game as he shoots straight over Maxiell for a long two, tying the game at five. With the game tied at 7-7, Cincy displays solid fundamental skills, as Patterson feeds Maxiell backdoor for an easy jam to give them the lead. From this point on, it looked like Texas basically gave up. Ruben Patterson, who put together an all-around solid effort, scored the last two buckets of the game as Cincy shocked Texas, 11-7.
Key Stats:
Texas:
Aldridge - 3 pts/3 rbs
Durant - 3 pts
Cincinnati:
Maxiell - 7 pts/2 rbs
Martin - 1 pts/5 asts
Patterson - 3 pts/2 asts/2 stls
Len Bias Region:
(3) Michigan State 11
(6) Maryland 9
We had a huge Maryland fan in the house for this game so as anticipated, the atmosphere was better than for any other previous contest. Michigan State is showing their thug side early, as Randolph absolutely Hacks Blake, but it's cool because it's street ball. After a span of five minutes where the teams traded baskets, Chris Wilcox showed a side of himself that is not likely to be seen in teh NBA any time soon, drilling two jumpers and slamming a couple home to give the Terps an 8-6 lead. Unfortunately, it was all down hill from their for Rob and his boys as
Michigan State proved to be too talented and squeaked by 11-9 led by 6 points by Zach Randolph. (Anticipate a column on how he is the worst human being in the world in the near future.)
Key Stats:
Michigan State:
Randolph - 6 pts/7 rbs/2 asts/1 stls/1 blks
Richardson - 2 pts/2 rbs (2-9 FG)
Bell - 4 TOs
Maryland:
Wilcox - 8 pts/4 rbs (8-10 FG)
Blake - 3 Stls
Francis - 0 pts/2 rbs/6 asts
(4) Washington 11
(5) Illinois 9
Deron started the game off with two quick buckets and had Illinois set on a sweet sixteen berth. Nate then showed us why he is the Knicks' mascot, throwing the ball through a guy's legs en route to a jam. Much to Evan's pleasure, his boy Spencer Hawes hit three straight shorties to give the Huskies a 5-2 lead. Illionois would not go away though, as through some excellent ball movement, they reeled off five stright to give them a 7-5 lead. After Hawes and Roy Illinois' poor defense, Williams goes into fourth quarter mode, drilling a tough fallaway jumper and pulling the Illini within one, 10-9. Unfortunately for Deron though, neither Cook nor Head, proved able to defend the force known as Spencer Hawes, as he fittingly jammed home the final basket for a 11-9 final.
Key Stats:
Washington:
Hawes - 6 pts/2 asts
Roy - 4 pts/1 rbs/3 asts
Robinson - 1 pts/4 asts
Illinois:
Head - 4 pts/1 rbs/3 asts
Williams - 3 pts/2 rbs/1 asts
Cook - 2 pts/1 rbs/3 asts
18 January 2008
17 January 2008
Futures – The Safe Bet
Over the years, betting on sports has evolved into a relatively inexpensive way that males ensure that boredom can be avoided on weeknights and weekends, especially now that the internet allows bets to be placed with a just a few clicks. Basically, lay down five dollars on a four team parlay, kick back, grab some beers, and watch as you come painstakingly close to winning the bet only to see your last team blow the lead in the final minutes and cost you hundreds of dollars of potential winnings. Fortunately, that’s alright in most fans’ minds because they just paid five dollars for a whole night of entertainment, which is far less costly and just as exciting as most other options like going to the local strip club or taking a date out to dinner. (Yes ladies, we do value sports higher than your company regardless of whether you ‘put out’ or not, it’s just in our blood.)
I’m here to tell you that I strongly feel that the four team parlay is on the verge of succumbing to an equally entertaining wager opportunity that offers high utility over an extended duration AND gives the bettor a far higher chance of success. That opportunity that I advocate so strongly is the concept of betting ‘Futures,’ specifically futures that deal with the number of wins a team will have over the stretch of the upcoming season. There are a few reasons why I feel futures to be a smart bet:
1) The lines are set at a number that theoretically has nothing to do the realistic amount of games a team is projected to win. The lines are actually set where the lines makers believe 50% of the people will bet on the over, and the other 50% will bet the under. It is set this way because bet takers pay out equally for both circumstances, but pay out less than 1:1, hence allowing them to profit regardless of the outcome. This is also the case on most singular sporting events where a spread is involved, however there is a distinct difference between the two cases. Concerning the latter case, if the Knicks are playing the Bucks and are five point underdogs, with a few lucky bounces, breaks, or calls by the referees, even if the Bucks played significantly better, the Knicks could easily cover that spread. Now let’s consider a Future where the over/under on the Knicks is 25 wins. If I have strong reason to believe that the Knicks are going to win over 25 games, it is going to take a lot more than bad bounces to shift the overall outcome of the season thus making it more likely for me to win assuming my assessment of the Knick as a team before the year starts is correct, all other factors held constant.
2) Because of the way the lines are set, research becomes all the more important, thus making it more likely for the smart bettor to come out on top. Generally, with the exception of teams who completely retool their rosters, teams’ over/under totals for the upcoming season are set relatively close to their record from the previous season. This being the case, there are only so many ways to gauge how a team’s record will differ from that of the previous season, the most typical ways include: assessing what effect offseason moves will have, monitoring the development of players, and taking into account strength of schedule. Researching these areas will give you much better idea of how team will perform than the person who simply bets by how they are feeling at the moment.
3) Even when your account is out of money because you lost it all on parlays, you still have your future to intensely focus on with all the free time you have! It’s kind of like that good feeling you get when you’re broke and somebody owes you money that you let them borrow months ago. Essentially, even though you’re not really up money, it feels like you are.
The MLB season is closer than you think, as evidenced by everyone in my fantasy keeper league trying to shake up their roster as much as possible, and seeing as futures will released soon, I thought I’d share some of my thoughts regarding potential future bets, if only to further elaborate on some of the ideas I touched on above. As a rule of thumb, I try to stay away from teams that finished in the middle of the pack the previous year, unless they made a lot of noise in the offseason, because the majority of them are just too tough to make a pick on with any confidence. The obvious ‘middle of the pack’ team that was certainly worth a bet this previous season was Boston. They made a lot of moves and only did things that would appear to make them improve in contrast to the roster they put forth in 2006. The over/under for them going into 2007 was over/under 91 wins. They pretty much tanked at the end of ’06 and still finished with 86 wins, coupled with their new additions, they appeared to be a relative lock for 91 the following year. Sure enough as the ’07 season came to a close Boston ended with 96 wins.
Now regarding the 2008 season, I have so far come up with two clubs who, if the lines are right, I feel very confident betting on:
The Tampa Bay Rays come into this season with a very solid lineup that has a nice mix of speed (Baldelli, Iwamura, Crawford,) power (Pena, Upton,) and young talent ready to start almost immediately (Longoria, Brignac.) Their pitching staff should also be vastly improved with four quality to outstanding starters in Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Sonnastine to go with an improved bullpen. The Rays only won 66 games last season so I doubt their over/under will be higher than 71 games and if that’s the case, I’m going with the over.
Prediction: 79-83
Contributing writer Anthony D’Amato happens to be a huge Indians fan, even though we reside in New Jersey, so every time the Tribe wins a ball game I always hear about it right away. Last season was really magical for them and they probably should have reached the 100 win plateau if not for a late season skid. This off-season though, Mark Shapiro has stood pat as every team in his division (yes, even the Royals) has improved by a noticeable margin. That being the case, I don’t know if I can envision the Indians edging out the Tigers or whatever other club may come out of this ultra competitive division. I expect odds makers to set the line for the Indians in the 91-93 range, which should end up being a bit high. I’ll be rooting for Cleveland for my buddy’s sake, but I see them getting the wild card at best (and unlikely considering Boston and the Yanks) with somewhere in 85-89 win range.
Prediction: 88-74
I want to be very clear though so please read carefully: Futures aren’t for everyone. If you’re not one for commitment and get bored with your women – I mean wagers after an extended period of time, stick with the parlays. Sure you’ve got a higher risk of losing your bet (contracting an STD?) but it’s always fun while it lasts. However, if you want to have a better shot of winning and are looking to settle down with that ‘special bet’ then take the time to pick out a real sweetheart of a future and look forward to the tough times and great times that lie ahead of you.
16 January 2008
NBA Top 50 Fantasy Players (Current)
On the bubble:
Mike Miller – Steady performer on an improving team
Devin Harris – has cooled off a little but still stellar
LaMarcus Aldridge – He’ll be a 20/10 guy soon, just not yet
Francisco Garcia – quietly emerging as a valuable asset from the train wreck that is the Kings’ season
Kevin Durant – Playing like Melo fantasy-wise. Let’s pray that’s only due to the lack of talent surrounding him
Dropped out:
Kevin Durant, Devin Harris, Grant Hill, Andrew Bynum, Jermaine O’Neal
Note: Previous rank in parentheses
50) (40) Joe Johnson – Not a good sign that he had his best fantasy game of the year only because Josh Smith got in foul trouble. He’s still solid in Pts, Rbs, and Asts regardless
49) (-) Andrei Kirilenko – He’s fought through injuries and has continued to deliver the kind of fantasy numbers his owners expect
48) (-) Leandro Barbosa – Very efficient (17 pts, 1 TO/ game last month,) just hope he doesn’t go Boris Diaw on fantasy owners
47) (45) Samuel Dalembert – Last week’s avg. stats: 14/15/3 (pts, rbs, blks)
46) (32) Brandon Roy – He’s come back down to Earth with the Blazers, but still count on him quality numbers
45) (27) Jason Kidd – I’m thankful I don’t have to endure the hit that the ‘most harmful nightly triple-double ever’ takes on a fantasy team’s statistics
44) (42) Carmelo Anthony – Showing no signs of improving his fantasy game whatsoever. Basically, the price you’d have to pay to pry him away from another team probably isn’t worth it
43) (24) Paul Pierce – Celtics, as a team, are starting to show the effects of riding three guys night in and night out. Pierce isn’t going to lose you a title, but I’d be weary if I were an owner and might try to deal him now before injuries and fatigue become too much of an issue
42) (47) Tim Duncan – Showing signs of returning to his old self (10 double-doubles since return,) don’t bank on it though
41) (38) Tyson Chandler – Last month averaging 13/13/1/1/2 (Pts, Rbs, Stls, Blks, TOs) and he can still be gotten cheap
40) (29) Josh Howard – Really fallen off of late, and unless he picks it up soon a drop off the board could be in his future
39) (19) Al Jefferson – If he could shoot free throws he’d be top 20 for sure. Unfortunately he’s stuck with a bad case of DHS (Dwight Howard Syndrome)
38) (49) Mike Dunleavy – If you are an owner who happens to be in the unfortunate position of owning Melo, McGrady, or someone of that sort, see if you can yank Mr. Dunleavy away for your high-profile, terrible roto-wise, scorer
37) (48) Ron Artest – As soon as he comes back this week, he will immediately re-enter the elite group of players who help in every category
36) (-) Manu Ginobili - Healthy again and ready to pick up right where he left off before injury (as a top 25 player)
35) (30) Deron Williams – After an off month, Deron has shown signs of returning to form this past week
34) (25) Rudy Gay – With Gasol’s re-emergence and Conley taking over at the point, teams aren’t going to be able to focus solely on him any longer
33) (33) Mo Williams – In Redd’s absence he molded perfectly into more of a scoring guard, but expect more assists from Mo from here on in
32) (37) David West - #15 in Y! over the last month averaging 22/10/3/2 (Pts, Rbs, Asts, Blks) and he can still be pried away for a relatively cheap price
31) (11) Dwyane Wade – I’ve developed serious concerns about Wade over the past week. He’s over-worked, given even less of a team than LeBron, and could get injured at any time. Sure, he’s a top 15 player when everything’s clicking but it doesn’t seem like that’s going to be a frequent occurrence this season
30) (43) Michael Redd – Healthy again and playing like he never sat out a game
29) (39) Rashard Lewis – I’m probably undervaluing him, but at the present moment I can’t find it in me to move him ahead of the 28 guys to follow
28) (44) Antawn Jamison – Areans was recently quoted saying that if he doesn’t feel 100% in February / March he may just shut it down for the year. For the sake of Jamison and Butler owners, I hope that’s the case
27) Hedo Turkoglu – What can I say, I’m a huge fan of all-around performers
26) (12) Carlos Boozer – Boozer’s #70 over the last month and may have began the fall into the Zach Randolph Zone (satisfied with contributing 20 pts, 10 rbs, nothing more, nothing less)
25) (36) Rasheed Wallace – the most undervalued player in the Y! game this year
24) (26) Dwight Howard – FT % and TOs both showing improvement in January
23) (-) Pau Gasol – It’s nice to see him finally playing with some motivation again, and his numbers are reflecting it (#16 in Y! last month)
22) (31) Jose Calderon – easily has the best assist /to ratio of anyone in the business (5.14/1)
21) (20) Andre Iguodala – He’s been a rock on an awful team all season that does have a good, young core of Dalembert, Williams, and Iguodala. It is not out of the question that Andre takes the next step and becomes a top 15 fantasy stud by year’s end
20) (21) Chris Kaman – In case you thought this season’s incredible improvement may have been a fluke: http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/33574
19) (-) Kevin Martin – He’s back. Last year he was one of the most found players on championship fantasy teams and if not for that untimely injury, would probably be a top 15 player right now
18) (28) Gerad Wallace – I’ll admit it, I didn’t think he was going to be able to follow up last year’s performance, but this last month he and JRich have really gelled together leading to Wallace putting up Kobe like numbers over that time period: 25/7/5/2/1 (Pts, Rbs, Asts, Stls, Blks)
17) (17) Chris Bosh – Seriously, just listen to him and Bubba, and vote for Boshy already
16) (34) Jason Richardson – his 3.2 treys/game stat over the last month has been one of the most valuable in all of fantasy, and this to go with all ready stellar all-category game
15) (23) Yao – Okay so maybe I was only hating on Yao in last week’s rankings because no one will take him from me in my Y! league. He clearly reads The Column and showed his displeasure at my ignorance by averaging 26/10/ this last week
14) (18) Josh Smith – Leads the league in Blks + Stls per game to go w/ 18/8/3 averages
13) (22) Steve Nash – As his team heals, his numbers will only improve
12) (14) Chauncey Billups – Might not be the flashiest, but the most consistent PG in the game every week
11) (8) Kevin Garnett – As is the trend of most Celtics’ these days, his stats have been slipping the past month
10) (13) Dirk Nowitzki – Finally starting to put the Mavs on his back again; should be a good sign for owners
9) (7) Allen Iverson – Good news AI owners, Chucky Atkins is out for the year!! That can only mean more points, more assists, and more thug
8) (10) Amare Stoudemire – As good as it gets at the center position if he can continue to stay healthy
7) (9) LeBron James – Bouncing back nicely since injury and it was refreshing to see him absolutely take over the game against the Grizz on Tuesday
6) (5) Marcus Camby – his 14.2 rbs/game are just scary; basically he’s Ben Wallace in his prime except better
5) (3) Baron Davis – January’s been his worst month to date, but all that’s really saying is that he’s not quite a top 3 player right now
4) (6) Kobe Bryant – Uh oh, Bynum’s out and you know what that means…Kobe’s going to start dropping 50 a night with regularity
3) (4) Caron Butler – Almost single-handedly took two in a row from the Celtics last week and judging from the balance in his stat line the past month you’d think he really was playing all five positions
2) (1) Shawn Marion – His team’s lack of depth and recent injuries is the sole reason for his dethroning this week
1) (2) Chris Paul – I consider myself pretty conservative when assessing fantasy talent (especially in basketball where players’ values seem fluctuate much more so than baseball) but after watching my boy CP3 consistently putting up eye popping stats while managing to maintain efficient turnover and shooting % totals, I really can’t leave him at #2 any longer. I love you Shawn, but for now CP reigns